Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans on stable run prevention more than one extreme carrying pitch trait.
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026
Scott, Christian
Breaking-ball driven starter profile
Team NYM
Archetype Breaking-ball attack
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.08 |
| ERA current pace | 3.20 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.74 |
| Observed weight | 38% |
ERA
2.59
3.13
3.74
4.35
4.89
FIP
2.66
2.95
3.28
3.61
3.90
K%
18.0%
20.0%
22.1%
24.3%
26.2%
BB%
5.5%
6.5%
7.6%
8.7%
9.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%10.7%
26
-57 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.8%
74
+42 vs proj
Fastball velo95.3
68
Hard-hit allowed31.4%
89
K%28.2%
84
+46 vs proj
Whiff%22.9%
49
xwOBA allowed0.324
42
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+103
59
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
6Pitches
2026Season
50%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 55.8% | 208 | 101 | qualified |
| FC | 20.9% | 78 | 103 | limited sample |
| SL | 20.1% | 75 | 110 | limited sample |
| SI | 3.2% | 12 | 92 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.28 |
| K% Δ | +0.073 |
| Sample | 33.0 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 141.2 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 598 | -- | -- |
| K% | 20.9% | 14.1% to 26.0% | +/- 5.9% |
| BB% | 6.2% | 2.7% to 8.0% | +/- 2.7% |
| Whiff% | 21.6% | 14.3% to 23.9% | +/- 4.8% |
| HR/9 | 1.67 | 0.77 to 2.10 | +/- 0.67 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.319 | 0.226 to 0.351 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 9.2% | 5.2% to 11.6% | +/- 3.2% |
| ERA | 4.48 | 2.10 to 5.28 | +/- 1.59 |
| FIP | 4.41 | 2.59 to 4.31 | +/- 0.86 |
| WHIP | 1.191 | 0.702 to 1.518 | +/- 0.408 |
vs LHH
103 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.215 |
| K% | 14.0% |
| BB% | 3.9% |
| Barrel | 8.0% |
vs RHH
108 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.196 |
| K% | 15.2% |
| BB% | 3.3% |
| Barrel | 6.8% |