Silseth, Chase
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.92 |
| ERA current pace | 1.96 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.33 |
| Observed weight | 30% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 54.0% | 107 | 96 | limited sample |
| SI | 23.7% | 47 | 103 | limited sample |
| SL | 22.2% | 44 | 103 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.89 |
| K% Δ | -0.036 |
| Sample | 24.3 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 59.1 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 264 | -- | -- |
| K% | 26.2% | 20.4% to 33.9% | +/- 6.8% |
| BB% | 9.7% | 6.9% to 13.2% | +/- 3.1% |
| Whiff% | 25.0% | 20.7% to 32.8% | +/- 6.1% |
| HR/9 | 1.50 | 0.50 to 2.06 | +/- 0.78 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.308 | 0.245 to 0.331 | +/- 0.043 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 9.0% | 3.6% to 12.6% | +/- 4.5% |
| ERA | 3.85 | 1.64 to 5.32 | +/- 1.84 |
| FIP | 4.01 | 2.51 to 6.29 | +/- 1.89 |
| WHIP | 1.332 | 1.027 to 1.579 | +/- 0.276 |
236 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.276 |
| K% | 23.5% |
| BB% | 11.4% |
| Barrel | 10.0% |
255 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.246 |
| K% | 26.0% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 8.9% |