Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Silseth, Chase

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
26.2% K%
Range
20.4% to 33.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
59
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
64
Arsenal4 metrics
45
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.92
ERA current pace3.03
ERA rolling p503.55
Observed weight42%
ERA
2.23 2.85 3.55 4.24 4.87
FIP
2.48 3.13 3.84 4.55 5.19
K%
22.7% 24.8% 27.0% 29.3% 31.4%
BB%
8.4% 9.4% 10.6% 11.8% 12.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.30
54
ERA3.03
75
BB%12.7%
14 -21 vs proj
K%28.3%
85
xwOBA allowed0.300
65
Barrel allowed9.9%
21
Fastball velo95.9
73
Hard-hit allowed31.7%
91
Whiff%32.0%
95 +29 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+100
29
Mithrandir Stuff+100
32
Sinker Stuff+101
42
Slider Stuff+106
79
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Silseth, Chase · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.300 2026-07-06: 0.2902026-07-07: 0.2952026-07-08: 0.2952026-07-09: 0.2952026-07-10: 0.2952026-07-11: 0.3082026-07-12: 0.3082026-07-13: 0.3082026-07-14: 0.3012026-07-15: 0.3012026-07-16: 0.3002026-07-17: 0.300 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Silseth, Chase · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 32%32%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Silseth, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 38.9%Split-Finger: 31.2%Sinker: 15.0%Sweeper: 14.9% FF39% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 39%FS 31%SI 15%ST 15% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Silseth, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 39% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.0 mphFF96 mphSplit-Finger: 31% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 88.0 mphFS88 mphSinker: 15% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 95.7 mphSI96 mphSweeper: 15% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.7 mphST87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 55.4% 154 100 limited sample
SI 23.7% 66 101 limited sample
SL 20.9% 58 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.276 vs 0.246 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 33%, Sweeper 28%, Split-Finger 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.82
K% Δ+0.021
Sample40.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings58.7----
Batters Faced262----
K%26.2%20.4% to 33.9%+/- 6.8%
BB%9.7%6.9% to 13.2%+/- 3.1%
Whiff%25.0%20.7% to 32.8%+/- 6.1%
HR/91.500.50 to 2.06+/- 0.78
xwOBA Against0.3080.245 to 0.331+/- 0.043
Barrel% Allowed9.0%3.6% to 12.6%+/- 4.5%
ERA3.851.64 to 5.32+/- 1.84
FIP4.012.51 to 6.29+/- 1.89
WHIP1.3321.027 to 1.580+/- 0.276
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

236 career BF

xwOBA0.276
K%23.5%
BB%11.4%
Barrel10.0%
vs RHH

255 career BF

xwOBA0.246
K%26.0%
BB%7.6%
Barrel8.9%