Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Silseth, Chase

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
26.2% K%
Range
20.4% to 33.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.92
ERA current pace1.96
ERA rolling p503.33
Observed weight30%
ERA
1.93 2.59 3.33 4.07 4.74
FIP
2.59 3.27 4.03 4.79 5.47
K%
20.1% 22.4% 25.1% 27.7% 30.1%
BB%
8.2% 9.4% 10.8% 12.1% 13.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%14.7%
5 -30 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.3%
68 +34 vs proj
Fastball velo95.9
75
Hard-hit allowed28.6%
95
K%22.5%
53 -23 vs proj
Whiff%31.7%
93 +27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.294
68
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+98
22
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Silseth, Chase · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3272026-05-19: 0.3272026-05-21: 0.3262026-05-23: 0.3182026-05-24: 0.3142026-05-25: 0.3142026-05-26: 0.3142026-05-28: 0.3032026-05-29: 0.3032026-05-30: 0.3032026-05-31: 0.3032026-06-01: 0.294 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Silseth, Chase · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 41%41%Whiff: 32%32%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 29%29% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Silseth, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot Split-Finger: 37.9%4-Seam Fastball: 35.7%Sweeper: 14.0%Sinker: 12.4% MIX FS 38%FF 36%ST 14%SI 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Silseth, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot FS: HB -0.4, IVB 2.8FSFF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.2FFST: HB -0.4, IVB 3.1STSI: HB 0.3, IVB 1.7SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 54.0% 107 96 limited sample
SI 23.7% 47 103 limited sample
SL 22.2% 44 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.276 vs 0.246 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 33%, Sweeper 28%, Split-Finger 22%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.89
K% Δ-0.036
Sample24.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings59.1----
Batters Faced264----
K%26.2%20.4% to 33.9%+/- 6.8%
BB%9.7%6.9% to 13.2%+/- 3.1%
Whiff%25.0%20.7% to 32.8%+/- 6.1%
HR/91.500.50 to 2.06+/- 0.78
xwOBA Against0.3080.245 to 0.331+/- 0.043
Barrel% Allowed9.0%3.6% to 12.6%+/- 4.5%
ERA3.851.64 to 5.32+/- 1.84
FIP4.012.51 to 6.29+/- 1.89
WHIP1.3321.027 to 1.579+/- 0.276
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

236 career BF

xwOBA0.276
K%23.5%
BB%11.4%
Barrel10.0%
vs RHH

255 career BF

xwOBA0.246
K%26.0%
BB%7.6%
Barrel8.9%