Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Lavender, Nate

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
20.0% K%
Range
0.8% to 22.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
98
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
76
Arsenal4 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-15
ERA preseason3.01
ERA current pace1.66
ERA rolling p502.68
Observed weight25%
ERA
0.77 1.67 2.68 3.68 4.59
FIP
1.00 2.13 3.39 4.65 5.78
K%
13.2% 17.1% 21.5% 25.8% 29.7%
BB%
3.4% 5.3% 7.3% 9.4% 11.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.75
99
ERA1.66
99
BB%5.1%
95 +51 vs proj
K%32.9%
97 +62 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.228
99 +19 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.2%
38
Fastball velo92.4
20
Hard-hit allowed34.7%
79
Whiff%23.8%
59
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Changeup Stuff+100
37
Fastball Stuff+102
50
Mithrandir Stuff+102
52
Slider Stuff+101
47
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 73%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lavender, Nate · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.228 2026-10-04: 0.2282026-10-05: 0.2282026-10-06: 0.2282026-10-07: 0.2282026-10-08: 0.2282026-10-09: 0.2282026-10-10: 0.2282026-10-11: 0.2282026-10-12: 0.2282026-10-13: 0.2282026-10-14: 0.2282026-10-15: 0.228 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lavender, Nate · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 55%55%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 20%20%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lavender, Nate · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 73.5%Slider: 10.5%Changeup: 8.5%Sweeper: 7.5% FF73% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 73%SL 11%CH 9%ST 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lavender, Nate · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 73% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 92.4 mphFF92 mphSlider: 11% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 85.0 mphSL85 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 80.7 mphCH81 mphSweeper: 7% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 79.8 mphST80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 78.3% 162 102 limited sample
SL 14.5% 30 101 limited sample
CH 7.2% 15 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.44
K% Δ+0.129
Sample21.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings35.6----
Batters Faced153----
K%20.0%0.8% to 22.3%+/- 10.8%
BB%9.3%0.2% to 10.4%+/- 5.1%
Whiff%22.7%3.1% to 28.4%+/- 12.7%
HR/91.300.00 to 1.59+/- 0.79
xwOBA Against0.2850.001 to 0.313+/- 0.156
Barrel% Allowed7.8%0.1% to 9.6%+/- 4.7%
ERA4.100.00 to 4.81+/- 2.40
FIP4.110.37 to 6.41+/- 3.02
WHIP1.1860.046 to 1.395+/- 0.675
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%1.5%
BB%2.5%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

4 career BF

xwOBA0.005
K%1.3%
BB%2.7%
Barrel0.2%