Little, Luke
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.77 |
| ERA current pace | 9.00 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.88 |
| Observed weight | 2% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 73.7% | 14 | 108 | limited sample |
| SL | 21.1% | 4 | 107 | limited sample |
| SI | 5.3% | 1 | 69 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 30.7 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 139 | -- | -- |
| K% | 26.0% | 16.8% to 30.5% | +/- 6.9% |
| BB% | 12.9% | 7.5% to 19.0% | +/- 5.8% |
| Whiff% | 25.4% | 17.9% to 31.1% | +/- 6.6% |
| HR/9 | 1.09 | 0.05 to 1.50 | +/- 0.72 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.286 | 0.196 to 0.350 | +/- 0.077 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 5.8% | 0.7% to 9.5% | +/- 4.4% |
| ERA | 3.77 | 0.00 to 5.50 | +/- 2.75 |
| FIP | 3.95 | 2.11 to 5.05 | +/- 1.47 |
| WHIP | 1.381 | 1.010 to 1.779 | +/- 0.384 |
71 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.218 |
| K% | 22.3% |
| BB% | 13.0% |
| Barrel | 2.3% |
102 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.240 |
| K% | 20.1% |
| BB% | 13.3% |
| Barrel | 3.2% |