Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

Leahy, Kyle

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.9% K%
Range
18.0% to 28.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
38
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
30
Arsenal6 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-19
ERA preseason3.73
ERA current pace3.73
ERA rolling p503.73
Observed weight63%
ERA
2.52 3.09 3.73 4.37 4.94
FIP
2.89 3.29 3.73 4.17 4.56
K%
18.4% 19.6% 20.9% 22.2% 23.3%
BB%
6.1% 6.9% 7.7% 8.5% 9.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.41
33
ERA3.73
56
BB%8.3%
56 -16 vs proj
K%19.9%
32
xwOBA allowed0.353
14 -19 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.5%
15 -20 vs proj
Fastball velo94.0
42
Hard-hit allowed49.0%
3
Whiff%19.0%
18 -28 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-19
Fastball Stuff+101
38
Mithrandir Stuff+103
61
Slider Stuff+108
89
Changeup Stuff+101
43
Curveball Stuff+102
56
Sinker Stuff+103
58
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Leahy, Kyle · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.353 2026-07-08: 0.3592026-07-09: 0.3592026-07-10: 0.3592026-07-11: 0.3592026-07-12: 0.3532026-07-13: 0.3532026-07-14: 0.3532026-07-15: 0.3532026-07-16: 0.3532026-07-17: 0.3532026-07-18: 0.3532026-07-19: 0.353 2026-07-08 2026-07-19 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Leahy, Kyle · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Leahy, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 28.5%Slider: 16.3%Curveball: 15.9%Sinker: 13.4%Changeup: 13.0%Sweeper: 12.9% FF28% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 28%SL 16%CU 16%SI 13%CH 13%ST 13% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Leahy, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.1 mphFF94 mphSlider: 16% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.2 mphSL89 mphCurveball: 16% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 51″ drop, 82.8 mphCU83 mphSinker: 13% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.8 mphSI94 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.4 mphCH88 mphSweeper: 13% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 84.7 mphST85 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.3 mphPO92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 30.7% 290 101 qualified
SL 27.6% 261 108 qualified
CB 15.4% 146 102 limited sample
SI 14.0% 132 103 limited sample
CH 12.3% 116 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 30%, Slider 21%, Curveball 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.46
K% Δ-0.021
Sample92.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.5----
Batters Faced275----
K%21.9%18.0% to 28.2%+/- 5.1%
BB%7.2%4.1% to 10.1%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%22.5%19.0% to 26.7%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.060.17 to 1.64+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3310.269 to 0.356+/- 0.043
Barrel% Allowed8.7%5.7% to 11.9%+/- 3.1%
ERA4.191.93 to 5.24+/- 1.66
FIP3.562.52 to 4.81+/- 1.14
WHIP1.2300.977 to 1.505+/- 0.264
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

251 career BF

xwOBA0.310
K%20.3%
BB%8.0%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

347 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%20.1%
BB%5.4%
Barrel8.2%