Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

Leahy, Kyle

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.9% K%
Range
18.0% to 28.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.73
ERA current pace4.44
ERA rolling p504.11
Observed weight53%
ERA
2.93 3.49 4.11 4.72 5.28
FIP
3.19 3.57 4.00 4.42 4.81
K%
18.0% 19.4% 20.9% 22.4% 23.8%
BB%
5.8% 6.7% 7.7% 8.6% 9.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.6%
53 -18 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.6%
19 -18 vs proj
Fastball velo93.7
37
Hard-hit allowed47.9%
7
K%19.4%
28 -21 vs proj
Whiff%19.7%
21 -25 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.383
4 -32 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+103
61
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Leahy, Kyle · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3832026-05-19: 0.3832026-05-21: 0.3832026-05-23: 0.3832026-05-24: 0.3852026-05-25: 0.3852026-05-26: 0.3852026-05-28: 0.3852026-05-29: 0.3862026-05-30: 0.3862026-05-31: 0.3862026-06-01: 0.383 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Leahy, Kyle · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 48%48% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Leahy, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 30.0%Slider: 15.8%Curveball: 15.1%Sinker: 14.3%Sweeper: 13.1%Changeup: 11.7% MIX FF 30%SL 16%CU 15%SI 14%ST 13%CH 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Leahy, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.3FFSL: HB -0.2, IVB 2.5SLCU: HB 0.4, IVB 4.3CUSI: HB 0.8, IVB 1.7SIST: HB -0.9, IVB 3.0STCH: HB -0.8, IVB 2.8CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 31.7% 275 101 qualified
SL 27.6% 239 108 qualified
CB 15.2% 132 102 limited sample
SI 13.5% 117 103 limited sample
CH 12.0% 104 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 30%, Slider 21%, Curveball 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.25
K% Δ-0.025
Sample59.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.6----
Batters Faced276----
K%21.9%18.0% to 28.2%+/- 5.1%
BB%7.2%4.1% to 10.1%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%22.5%19.0% to 26.7%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.060.17 to 1.64+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3310.269 to 0.356+/- 0.043
Barrel% Allowed8.7%5.7% to 11.9%+/- 3.1%
ERA4.191.93 to 5.24+/- 1.66
FIP3.562.52 to 4.81+/- 1.14
WHIP1.2300.977 to 1.505+/- 0.264
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

251 career BF

xwOBA0.310
K%20.3%
BB%8.0%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

347 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%20.1%
BB%5.4%
Barrel8.2%