Fernandez, Ryan
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.01 |
| ERA current pace | 2.08 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.71 |
| Observed weight | 15% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 43.4% | 59 | 106 | limited sample |
| SL | 41.2% | 56 | 104 | limited sample |
| CH | 12.5% | 17 | 103 | limited sample |
| FC | 2.9% | 4 | 90 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 37.1 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 166 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.3% | 19.2% to 33.7% | +/- 7.3% |
| BB% | 9.9% | 6.5% to 14.3% | +/- 3.9% |
| Whiff% | 28.9% | 23.5% to 37.7% | +/- 7.1% |
| HR/9 | 1.15 | 0.48 to 1.96 | +/- 0.74 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.315 | 0.239 to 0.351 | +/- 0.056 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.1% | 3.3% to 12.4% | +/- 4.6% |
| ERA | 3.99 | 1.91 to 6.77 | +/- 2.43 |
| FIP | 4.04 | 2.60 to 5.09 | +/- 1.25 |
| WHIP | 1.320 | 1.046 to 1.802 | +/- 0.378 |
180 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.275 |
| K% | 22.2% |
| BB% | 11.1% |
| Barrel | 9.3% |
272 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.257 |
| K% | 22.8% |
| BB% | 8.0% |
| Barrel | 7.3% |