Estrada, Lazaro
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.78 |
| ERA current pace | 0.00 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.36 |
| Observed weight | 11% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 59.4% | 38 | 106 | limited sample |
| SL | 32.8% | 21 | 96 | limited sample |
| CB | 7.8% | 5 | 86 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 32.3 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 149 | -- | -- |
| K% | 22.6% | 14.8% to 30.6% | +/- 7.9% |
| BB% | 7.1% | 0.8% to 11.1% | +/- 5.2% |
| Whiff% | 23.8% | 14.8% to 30.4% | +/- 7.8% |
| HR/9 | 1.41 | 0.41 to 2.10 | +/- 0.84 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.321 | 0.187 to 0.339 | +/- 0.076 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.4% | 4.5% to 12.2% | +/- 3.9% |
| ERA | 4.10 | 2.87 to 6.76 | +/- 1.94 |
| FIP | 3.85 | 2.08 to 5.21 | +/- 1.56 |
| WHIP | 1.278 | 0.781 to 1.634 | +/- 0.427 |
14 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.178 |
| K% | 14.4% |
| BB% | 2.7% |
| Barrel | 7.0% |
30 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.170 |
| K% | 15.8% |
| BB% | 1.9% |
| Barrel | 7.6% |