Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 58%, Cutter 36%, Sinker 6%.
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026
Roberts, Ethan
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team CHC
Archetype Volatile contact
Age 29
Status Out / inactive
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
22
Pitching
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.64 |
| ERA current pace | 4.21 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.83 |
| Observed weight | 33% |
ERA
2.17
2.96
3.83
4.70
5.49
FIP
3.31
3.86
4.48
5.09
5.64
K%
13.2%
15.6%
18.2%
20.9%
23.2%
BB%
6.3%
7.7%
9.2%
10.7%
12.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.48
23
ERA4.21
45
BB%12.9%
13
-55 vs proj
K%15.5%
8
-32 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.342
22
-33 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.0%
86
+45 vs proj
Fastball velo93.7
37
Hard-hit allowed43.8%
16
Whiff%20.4%
29
-16 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Cutter Stuff+109
99
Mithrandir Stuff+109
97
Sinker Stuff+91
6
Slider Stuff+110
96
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
3Pitches
2026Season
44%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC | 45.6% | 119 | 109 | limited sample |
| SL | 41.4% | 108 | 110 | limited sample |
| SI | 13.0% | 34 | 91 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.04 |
| K% Δ | -0.052 |
| Sample | 26.3 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 30.6 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 136 | -- | -- |
| K% | 20.8% | 13.5% to 27.8% | +/- 7.1% |
| BB% | 7.7% | 3.8% to 11.5% | +/- 3.8% |
| Whiff% | 22.2% | 14.6% to 28.2% | +/- 6.8% |
| HR/9 | 1.57 | 0.09 to 2.30 | +/- 1.11 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.308 | 0.245 to 0.381 | +/- 0.068 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.1% | 3.4% to 11.6% | +/- 4.1% |
| ERA | 4.17 | 1.82 to 6.25 | +/- 2.21 |
| FIP | 4.15 | 3.03 to 6.15 | +/- 1.56 |
| WHIP | 1.250 | 0.994 to 1.655 | +/- 0.331 |
vs LHH
92 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.257 |
| K% | 15.2% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 7.5% |
vs RHH
125 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.246 |
| K% | 15.9% |
| BB% | 4.7% |
| Barrel | 7.0% |