Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026

Sabrowski, Erik

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
30.0% K%
Range
23.4% to 38.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 29 Status IL-15
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason2.79
ERA current pace1.71
ERA rolling p502.47
Observed weight29%
ERA
0.37 1.36 2.47 3.58 4.58
FIP
2.07 2.54 3.07 3.60 4.08
K%
28.0% 30.7% 33.7% 36.7% 39.4%
BB%
8.9% 11.0% 13.3% 15.7% 17.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%14.3%
6
Barrel allowed7.3%
56
Fastball velo94.1
46
Hard-hit allowed36.6%
67
K%43.9%
100
Whiff%33.7%
97
xwOBA allowed0.249
93 +27 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+102
56
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 64%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sabrowski, Erik · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2412026-05-19: 0.2412026-05-21: 0.2412026-05-23: 0.2502026-05-24: 0.2502026-05-25: 0.2492026-05-26: 0.2492026-05-28: 0.2492026-05-29: 0.2492026-05-30: 0.2492026-05-31: 0.2492026-06-01: 0.249 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sabrowski, Erik · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 34%34%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sabrowski, Erik · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 63.6%Curveball: 19.6%Slider: 16.7% MIX FF 64%CU 20%SL 17% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sabrowski, Erik · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.3, IVB 1.0FFCU: HB 0.3, IVB 4.4CUSL: HB -0.0, IVB 2.8SL horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 66.2% 237 104 qualified
CB 20.9% 75 101 limited sample
SL 12.8% 46 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.216 vs 0.247 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 68%, Slider 17%, Curveball 15%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.71
K% Δ+0.139
Sample24.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.2----
Batters Faced140----
K%30.0%23.4% to 38.6%+/- 7.6%
BB%12.4%6.7% to 18.6%+/- 5.9%
Whiff%28.1%23.6% to 35.6%+/- 6.0%
HR/91.010.37 to 1.72+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.2960.214 to 0.335+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed7.0%2.4% to 10.1%+/- 3.9%
ERA3.420.00 to 5.49+/- 2.75
FIP3.442.08 to 4.69+/- 1.31
WHIP1.2310.859 to 1.650+/- 0.396
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

87 career BF

xwOBA0.216
K%30.0%
BB%11.5%
Barrel3.2%
vs RHH

117 career BF

xwOBA0.247
K%26.9%
BB%13.9%
Barrel4.5%