Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026

Sabrowski, Erik

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
30.0% K%
Range
23.4% to 38.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
58
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
52
Arsenal4 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason2.79
ERA current pace3.62
ERA rolling p503.08
Observed weight36%
ERA
1.06 2.02 3.08 4.15 5.10
FIP
2.43 2.88 3.39 3.90 4.35
K%
27.7% 30.2% 33.0% 35.8% 38.2%
BB%
9.9% 11.8% 14.0% 16.1% 18.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
47
ERA3.62
58
BB%15.8%
2
K%39.1%
100
xwOBA allowed0.280
82
Barrel allowed10.2%
19 -41 vs proj
Fastball velo94.0
43
Hard-hit allowed42.4%
28
Whiff%30.4%
92
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+104
64
Curveball Stuff+102
44
Mithrandir Stuff+103
60
Slider Stuff+99
29
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 66%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sabrowski, Erik · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.280 2026-07-07: 0.2592026-07-08: 0.2592026-07-09: 0.2592026-07-10: 0.2702026-07-11: 0.2702026-07-12: 0.2802026-07-13: 0.2802026-07-14: 0.2802026-07-15: 0.2802026-07-16: 0.2802026-07-17: 0.2802026-07-18: 0.280 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sabrowski, Erik · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sabrowski, Erik · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 66.1%Curveball: 18.6%Slider: 15.2% FF66% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 66%CU 19%SL 15% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sabrowski, Erik · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 66% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 94.0 mphFF94 mphCurveball: 19% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 81.2 mphCU81 mphSlider: 15% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 86.2 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 66.6% 259 104 qualified
CB 20.6% 80 102 limited sample
SL 12.9% 50 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.216 vs 0.247 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 68%, Slider 17%, Curveball 15%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.20
K% Δ+0.091
Sample30.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.0----
Batters Faced139----
K%30.0%23.4% to 38.6%+/- 7.6%
BB%12.4%6.7% to 18.6%+/- 5.9%
Whiff%28.1%23.6% to 35.6%+/- 6.0%
HR/91.010.37 to 1.72+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.2960.214 to 0.335+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed7.0%2.4% to 10.1%+/- 3.9%
ERA3.420.00 to 5.49+/- 2.75
FIP3.442.08 to 4.69+/- 1.31
WHIP1.2310.859 to 1.650+/- 0.396
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

87 career BF

xwOBA0.216
K%30.0%
BB%11.5%
Barrel3.2%
vs RHH

117 career BF

xwOBA0.247
K%26.9%
BB%13.9%
Barrel4.5%