Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Sisk, Evan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
26.3% K%
Range
16.8% to 31.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.59
ERA current pace1.56
ERA rolling p503.00
Observed weight29%
ERA
1.06 1.97 3.00 4.02 4.94
FIP
1.92 2.61 3.38 4.15 4.84
K%
19.5% 22.2% 25.0% 27.9% 30.5%
BB%
5.8% 7.6% 9.6% 11.6% 13.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.0%
44 +22 vs proj
Barrel allowed1.8%
98 +42 vs proj
Fastball velo90.9
7
Hard-hit allowed31.6%
88
K%30.0%
91
Whiff%23.7%
57 -16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.239
97 +35 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+94
12
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

8 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sisk, Evan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-24: 0.2412026-05-25: 0.2412026-05-26: 0.2412026-05-28: 0.2482026-05-29: 0.2482026-05-30: 0.2482026-05-31: 0.2432026-06-01: 0.239 2026-05-24 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sisk, Evan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sisk, Evan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 30.6%Curveball: 26.6%Sweeper: 19.2%4-Seam Fastball: 13.3%Changeup: 10.2% MIX SI 31%CU 27%ST 19%FF 13%CH 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sisk, Evan · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.3, IVB 2.3SICU: HB 0.6, IVB 4.4CUST: HB -0.8, IVB 3.1STFF: HB 0.0, IVB 1.6FFCH: HB -1.2, IVB 3.0CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 32.6% 127 96 limited sample
CB 25.7% 100 101 limited sample
SL 18.5% 72 90 limited sample
FB 12.1% 47 92 limited sample
CH 11.1% 43 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 31%, Sweeper 27%, 4-Seam Fastball 20%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.13
K% Δ+0.037
Sample23.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings29.9----
Batters Faced135----
K%26.3%16.8% to 31.6%+/- 7.4%
BB%11.0%4.9% to 15.2%+/- 5.1%
Whiff%26.4%18.3% to 33.2%+/- 7.5%
HR/91.020.00 to 1.52+/- 0.76
xwOBA Against0.3010.135 to 0.355+/- 0.110
Barrel% Allowed7.3%2.3% to 10.5%+/- 4.1%
ERA3.690.91 to 5.98+/- 2.54
FIP3.591.41 to 5.24+/- 1.91
WHIP1.3710.934 to 1.734+/- 0.400
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

45 career BF

xwOBA0.159
K%22.0%
BB%8.9%
Barrel3.7%
vs RHH

59 career BF

xwOBA0.177
K%19.0%
BB%8.4%
Barrel5.0%