Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Curveball 39%, 4-Seam Fastball 26%, Slider 19%.
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026
Herrin, Tim
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Team CLE
Archetype Balanced reliever 2
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.74 |
| ERA current pace | 2.00 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.21 |
| Observed weight | 30% |
ERA
1.51
2.32
3.21
4.10
4.90
FIP
3.05
3.61
4.23
4.84
5.40
K%
18.2%
20.6%
23.2%
25.7%
28.1%
BB%
9.4%
11.0%
12.7%
14.4%
16.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%15.2%
4
-18 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.1%
72
Fastball velo94.1
46
Hard-hit allowed31.8%
87
K%20.0%
32
-36 vs proj
Whiff%29.4%
87
xwOBA allowed0.301
62
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+96
15
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
29%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 30.5% | 103 | 92 | limited sample |
| CB | 27.2% | 92 | 95 | limited sample |
| FB | 21.6% | 73 | 102 | limited sample |
| SI | 20.4% | 69 | 105 | limited sample |
| CH | 0.3% | 1 | 88 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -2.00 |
| K% Δ | -0.050 |
| Sample | 22.7 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 38.5 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 165 | -- | -- |
| K% | 25.0% | 17.9% to 31.3% | +/- 6.7% |
| BB% | 11.2% | 7.9% to 16.5% | +/- 4.3% |
| Whiff% | 26.8% | 22.2% to 34.0% | +/- 5.9% |
| HR/9 | 1.10 | 0.10 to 1.94 | +/- 0.92 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.313 | 0.251 to 0.371 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 6.8% | 3.6% to 10.7% | +/- 3.6% |
| ERA | 4.00 | 1.49 to 5.95 | +/- 2.23 |
| FIP | 4.24 | 2.64 to 5.74 | +/- 1.55 |
| WHIP | 1.388 | 1.009 to 1.746 | +/- 0.369 |
vs LHH
279 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.286 |
| K% | 22.8% |
| BB% | 12.6% |
| Barrel | 4.9% |
vs RHH
400 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.301 |
| K% | 21.6% |
| BB% | 11.3% |
| Barrel | 6.9% |