Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026

Herrin, Tim

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
25.0% K%
Range
17.9% to 31.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
57
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
58
Arsenal5 metrics
22
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-15
ERA preseason3.74
ERA current pace3.02
ERA rolling p503.36
Observed weight53%
ERA
1.78 2.53 3.36 4.19 4.94
FIP
2.90 3.42 4.00 4.57 5.09
K%
20.5% 22.2% 24.1% 26.0% 27.7%
BB%
9.2% 10.4% 11.6% 12.9% 14.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.29
57
ERA3.02
82
BB%11.7%
21
K%23.7%
63
xwOBA allowed0.305
61
Barrel allowed7.8%
43 -19 vs proj
Fastball velo94.1
44
Hard-hit allowed37.3%
59
Whiff%29.5%
92
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Mithrandir Stuff+97
15
Curveball Stuff+97
5
Fastball Stuff+102
51
Sinker Stuff+100
34
Slider Stuff+93
7
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Herrin, Tim · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.305 2026-10-04: 0.3022026-10-05: 0.3022026-10-06: 0.3022026-10-07: 0.3022026-10-08: 0.2982026-10-09: 0.3032026-10-10: 0.3032026-10-11: 0.3032026-10-12: 0.3032026-10-13: 0.3032026-10-14: 0.3052026-10-15: 0.305 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Herrin, Tim · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Herrin, Tim · 2026 arsenal snapshot Curveball: 31.9%Slider: 24.5%Sinker: 23.6%4-Seam Fastball: 19.6%Changeup: 0.4% CU32% · 80 mphprimary pitch CU 32%SL 24%SI 24%FF 20%CH 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Herrin, Tim · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Curveball: 32% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 80.2 mphCU80 mphSlider: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.2 mphSL87 mphSinker: 24% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 93.6 mphSI94 mph4-Seam Fastball: 20% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 94.7 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 0% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 87.1 mphCH87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CB 27.6% 177 97 limited sample
SL 27.1% 174 93 limited sample
SI 23.9% 153 100 limited sample
FB 20.6% 132 102 limited sample
CH 0.8% 5 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Curveball 39%, 4-Seam Fastball 26%, Slider 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.98
K% Δ-0.013
Sample62.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.6----
Batters Faced170----
K%25.0%17.9% to 31.3%+/- 6.7%
BB%11.2%7.9% to 16.5%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%26.8%22.2% to 34.0%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.100.10 to 1.94+/- 0.92
xwOBA Against0.3130.251 to 0.371+/- 0.060
Barrel% Allowed6.8%3.6% to 10.7%+/- 3.6%
ERA4.001.49 to 5.95+/- 2.23
FIP4.232.64 to 5.75+/- 1.55
WHIP1.3881.009 to 1.746+/- 0.369
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

279 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%22.8%
BB%12.6%
Barrel4.9%
vs RHH

400 career BF

xwOBA0.301
K%21.6%
BB%11.3%
Barrel6.9%