Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Miller, Bryce

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.2% K%
Range
18.1% to 28.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
73
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
69
Arsenal6 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
ERA preseason3.81
ERA current pace4.12
ERA rolling p504.00
Observed weight61%
ERA
3.14 3.55 4.00 4.45 4.86
FIP
3.25 3.72 4.23 4.75 5.21
K%
21.3% 22.5% 23.8% 25.1% 26.3%
BB%
5.6% 6.2% 6.9% 7.5% 8.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.10
84
ERA4.12
48
BB%6.6%
82
K%24.5%
66 +17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.277
86 +46 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.4%
52 +15 vs proj
Fastball velo95.9
74
Hard-hit allowed33.1%
86
Whiff%22.1%
44
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-08-31
Curveball Stuff+98
9
Cutter Stuff+103
67
Fastball Stuff+114
99
Mithrandir Stuff+108
95
Sinker Stuff+100
37
Slider Stuff+101
42
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Miller, Bryce · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.277 2026-08-20: 0.2622026-08-21: 0.2622026-08-22: 0.2622026-08-23: 0.2622026-08-24: 0.2622026-08-25: 0.2772026-08-26: 0.2772026-08-27: 0.2772026-08-28: 0.2772026-08-29: 0.2772026-08-30: 0.2772026-08-31: 0.277 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Miller, Bryce · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Miller, Bryce · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.8%Split-Finger: 25.0%Slider: 9.2%Sweeper: 7.1%Sinker: 7.0%Cutter: 6.4% FF40% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 40%FS 25%SL 9%ST 7%SI 7%FC 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Miller, Bryce · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 40% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 96.0 mphFF96 mphSplit-Finger: 25% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 84.7 mphFS85 mphSlider: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.6 mphSL88 mphSweeper: 7% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 83.7 mphST84 mphSinker: 7% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 95.2 mphSI95 mphCutter: 6% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 91.0 mphFC91 mphKnuckle Curve: 6% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 51″ drop, 83.2 mphKC83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.3% 197 114 limited sample
SL 30.9% 121 101 limited sample
CB 7.7% 30 98 limited sample
SI 7.1% 28 100 limited sample
FC 4.1% 16 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.314 vs 0.285 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 41%, Split-Finger 18%, Sinker 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.03
K% Δ+0.022
Sample92.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings149.6----
Batters Faced627----
K%22.2%18.1% to 28.5%+/- 5.2%
BB%7.0%5.5% to 9.3%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%22.4%19.4% to 26.6%+/- 3.6%
HR/91.330.76 to 2.01+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3200.280 to 0.350+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.3%5.8% to 12.0%+/- 3.1%
ERA4.152.97 to 5.64+/- 1.33
FIP4.172.78 to 5.77+/- 1.50
WHIP1.1900.955 to 1.442+/- 0.243
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

879 career BF

xwOBA0.314
K%20.2%
BB%7.8%
Barrel9.9%
vs RHH

906 career BF

xwOBA0.285
K%22.6%
BB%5.6%
Barrel8.1%