Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026
Jones, Jared
Breaking-ball driven starter profile
Team PIT
Archetype Breaking-ball attack
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.17 |
| ERA current pace | 10.38 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.67 |
| Observed weight | 8% |
ERA
3.43
4.02
4.67
5.32
5.91
FIP
3.62
3.91
4.24
4.56
4.86
K%
18.3%
20.6%
23.1%
25.6%
27.9%
BB%
5.1%
6.0%
7.1%
8.2%
9.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Insufficient sample
Percentile strips appear after the current-season sample clears the threshold.
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher.
Stuff+ pending
No current Stuff+ row is available for this pitcher in the latest daily scoring artifact. The profile keeps this block visible so missing coverage is explicit rather than silent.
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 143.7 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 608 | -- | -- |
| K% | 23.1% | 19.3% to 29.5% | +/- 5.1% |
| BB% | 8.1% | 5.1% to 9.3% | +/- 2.1% |
| Whiff% | 25.7% | 22.8% to 30.9% | +/- 4.1% |
| HR/9 | 1.51 | 0.94 to 2.05 | +/- 0.55 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.316 | 0.266 to 0.332 | +/- 0.033 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.7% | 5.7% to 12.1% | +/- 3.2% |
| ERA | 4.33 | 2.78 to 5.47 | +/- 1.34 |
| FIP | 4.06 | 2.88 to 4.22 | +/- 0.67 |
| WHIP | 1.249 | 0.950 to 1.394 | +/- 0.222 |
vs LHH
274 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.261 |
| K% | 22.6% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 9.1% |
vs RHH
265 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.258 |
| K% | 20.8% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 8.8% |