Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 20 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Jones, Jared

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
23.1% K%
Range
19.3% to 29.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-20
79
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
77
Arsenal5 metrics
84
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-20
ERA preseason4.17
ERA current pace3.72
ERA rolling p503.88
Observed weight63%
ERA
2.90 3.37 3.88 4.40 4.87
FIP
2.99 3.22 3.48 3.74 3.98
K%
24.4% 25.7% 27.0% 28.4% 29.6%
BB%
6.0% 6.6% 7.3% 7.9% 8.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-20
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.09
87
ERA3.72
62
BB%7.5%
70
K%29.6%
91 +33 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.276
86 +42 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.4%
51 +20 vs proj
Fastball velo98.2
95
Hard-hit allowed37.6%
56
Whiff%29.7%
92 +19 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-20
Fastball Stuff+107
84
Mithrandir Stuff+108
94
Slider Stuff+111
98
Changeup Stuff+102
51
Curveball Stuff+106
93
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 47%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Jones, Jared · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.276 2026-10-09: 0.2762026-10-10: 0.2762026-10-11: 0.2762026-10-12: 0.2762026-10-13: 0.2762026-10-14: 0.2762026-10-15: 0.2762026-10-16: 0.2762026-10-17: 0.2762026-10-18: 0.2762026-10-19: 0.2762026-10-20: 0.276 2026-10-09 2026-10-20 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Jones, Jared · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Jones, Jared · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 46.6%Slider: 34.0%Changeup: 11.1%Curveball: 8.3% FF47% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 47%SL 34%CH 11%CU 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Jones, Jared · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 47% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 98.2 mphFF98 mphSlider: 34% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 89.9 mphSL90 mphChangeup: 11% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 92.8 mphCH93 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 85.7 mphCU86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.2% 350 107 qualified
SL 32.4% 235 111 qualified
CH 13.1% 95 102 limited sample
CB 6.3% 46 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.64
K% Δ+0.065
Sample101.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings143.2----
Batters Faced605----
K%23.1%19.3% to 29.5%+/- 5.1%
BB%8.1%5.1% to 9.3%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%25.7%22.8% to 30.9%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.510.94 to 2.05+/- 0.55
xwOBA Against0.3160.266 to 0.332+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.7%5.7% to 12.1%+/- 3.2%
ERA4.332.78 to 5.47+/- 1.34
FIP4.062.88 to 4.22+/- 0.67
WHIP1.2490.950 to 1.394+/- 0.222
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

274 career BF

xwOBA0.261
K%22.5%
BB%7.3%
Barrel9.1%
vs RHH

265 career BF

xwOBA0.258
K%20.8%
BB%5.5%
Barrel8.8%