Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Jones, Jared

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
23.1% K%
Range
19.3% to 29.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
61
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
64
Arsenal5 metrics
79
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason4.17
ERA current pace4.83
ERA rolling p504.55
Observed weight58%
ERA
3.59 4.05 4.55 5.06 5.52
FIP
3.44 3.66 3.92 4.17 4.40
K%
22.7% 24.0% 25.5% 27.0% 28.3%
BB%
6.3% 7.0% 7.8% 8.5% 9.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.24
66
ERA4.83
31
BB%8.4%
56
K%27.5%
84 +27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.295
70 +26 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.1%
40
Fastball velo98.3
96
Hard-hit allowed39.3%
43
Whiff%29.0%
90 +18 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Fastball Stuff+106
80
Changeup Stuff+99
30
Curveball Stuff+106
94
Mithrandir Stuff+107
93
Slider Stuff+111
98
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Jones, Jared · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.295 2026-08-25: 0.2972026-08-26: 0.2972026-08-27: 0.2972026-08-28: 0.2972026-08-29: 0.2972026-08-30: 0.3022026-08-31: 0.3022026-09-01: 0.3022026-09-02: 0.3022026-09-03: 0.3032026-09-04: 0.3032026-09-05: 0.295 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Jones, Jared · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Jones, Jared · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 46.0%Slider: 34.9%Changeup: 11.6%Curveball: 7.5% FF46% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 46%SL 35%CH 12%CU 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Jones, Jared · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 46% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 98.3 mphFF98 mphSlider: 35% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 89.7 mphSL90 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 93.0 mphCH93 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 85.7 mphCU86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 46.5% 230 106 qualified
SL 34.5% 171 111 limited sample
CH 14.3% 71 99 limited sample
CB 4.6% 23 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.47
K% Δ+0.045
Sample78.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings144.4----
Batters Faced610----
K%23.1%19.3% to 29.5%+/- 5.1%
BB%8.1%5.1% to 9.3%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%25.7%22.8% to 30.9%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.510.94 to 2.05+/- 0.55
xwOBA Against0.3160.266 to 0.332+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.7%5.7% to 12.1%+/- 3.2%
ERA4.332.78 to 5.47+/- 1.34
FIP4.062.88 to 4.22+/- 0.67
WHIP1.2490.950 to 1.394+/- 0.222
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

274 career BF

xwOBA0.261
K%22.6%
BB%7.3%
Barrel9.1%
vs RHH

265 career BF

xwOBA0.258
K%20.8%
BB%5.5%
Barrel8.8%