Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Leiter, Jack

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.8% K%
Range
18.3% to 30.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
38
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
41
Arsenal7 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.40
36
ERA5.29
21
BB%9.5%
43
K%24.1%
64
xwOBA allowed0.336
27
Barrel allowed11.2%
7
Fastball velo96.6
81
Hard-hit allowed41.1%
31
Whiff%24.2%
60
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Changeup Stuff+100
39
Fastball Stuff+110
95
Mithrandir Stuff+105
78
Slider Stuff+104
68
Curveball Stuff+102
43
Cutter Stuff+98
21
Sinker Stuff+103
60
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Leiter, Jack · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.336 2026-08-25: 0.3362026-08-26: 0.3362026-08-27: 0.3362026-08-28: 0.3362026-08-29: 0.3362026-08-30: 0.3362026-08-31: 0.3362026-09-01: 0.3362026-09-02: 0.3362026-09-03: 0.3362026-09-04: 0.3362026-09-05: 0.336 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Leiter, Jack · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Leiter, Jack · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 38.1%Slider: 18.2%Changeup: 17.6%Cutter: 9.7%Curveball: 8.7%Sinker: 7.6% FF38% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 38%SL 18%CH 18%FC 10%CU 9%SI 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Leiter, Jack · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 38% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 96.7 mphFF97 mphSlider: 18% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.5 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 90.0 mphCH90 mphCutter: 10% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.0 mphFC93 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 81.8 mphCU82 mphSinker: 8% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 95.8 mphSI96 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 38.3% 460 110 qualified
CH 17.9% 215 100 qualified
SL 17.8% 214 104 qualified
FC 10.1% 121 98 limited sample
CB 8.4% 101 102 limited sample
SI 7.6% 91 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 38%, Slider 23%, Changeup 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample83.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings141.6----
Batters Faced619----
K%23.8%18.3% to 30.1%+/- 5.9%
BB%9.2%7.0% to 11.9%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%24.7%20.7% to 29.3%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.310.64 to 1.87+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3170.273 to 0.358+/- 0.042
Barrel% Allowed8.1%4.6% to 12.8%+/- 4.1%
ERA3.922.98 to 5.92+/- 1.47
FIP4.112.85 to 5.78+/- 1.47
WHIP1.3121.076 to 1.548+/- 0.236
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

448 career BF

xwOBA0.299
K%20.5%
BB%10.1%
Barrel10.2%
vs RHH

449 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%21.1%
BB%8.0%
Barrel9.2%