Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Phillips, Connor

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
26.9% K%
Range
21.0% to 37.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 25 Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.75
ERA current pace5.53
ERA rolling p504.43
Observed weight38%
ERA
2.60 3.46 4.43 5.39 6.26
FIP
2.83 3.46 4.17 4.88 5.51
K%
21.9% 24.4% 27.2% 30.0% 32.6%
BB%
10.6% 12.1% 13.7% 15.3% 16.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%19.0%
1 -30 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.9%
26
Fastball velo98.3
96
Hard-hit allowed40.7%
42
K%23.8%
58 -22 vs proj
Whiff%24.7%
63 -24 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.378
7 -46 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+99
26
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Phillips, Connor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3552026-05-19: 0.3802026-05-21: 0.3802026-05-23: 0.3712026-05-24: 0.3782026-05-25: 0.3782026-05-26: 0.3782026-05-28: 0.3782026-05-29: 0.3782026-05-30: 0.3782026-05-31: 0.3782026-06-01: 0.378 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Phillips, Connor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Phillips, Connor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 49.3%Sweeper: 47.5%Curveball: 3.1% MIX FF 49%ST 48%CU 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Phillips, Connor · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.4, IVB 1.0FFST: HB -0.1, IVB 2.9STCU: HB 0.3, IVB 3.6CU horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.9% 267 95 qualified
SL 48.2% 263 103 qualified
CB 2.9% 16 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.275 vs 0.253 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Sweeper 46%, Curveball 5%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.60
K% Δ-0.031
Sample31.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.6----
Batters Faced142----
K%26.9%21.0% to 37.3%+/- 8.2%
BB%10.2%6.4% to 15.1%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%29.2%23.8% to 37.5%+/- 6.9%
HR/91.200.55 to 2.53+/- 0.99
xwOBA Against0.3110.240 to 0.371+/- 0.065
Barrel% Allowed9.9%6.8% to 19.0%+/- 6.1%
ERA3.931.18 to 6.21+/- 2.51
FIP3.512.49 to 6.18+/- 1.84
WHIP1.1530.769 to 1.545+/- 0.388
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

98 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%26.2%
BB%11.4%
Barrel15.8%
vs RHH

103 career BF

xwOBA0.253
K%25.9%
BB%8.2%
Barrel13.3%