Mears, Nick
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.93 |
| ERA current pace | 5.12 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.27 |
| Observed weight | 28% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 37.0% | 126 | 98 | limited sample |
| SL | 27.3% | 93 | 101 | limited sample |
| CB | 13.5% | 46 | 103 | limited sample |
| SI | 11.7% | 40 | 109 | limited sample |
| CH | 10.6% | 36 | 98 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +1.34 |
| K% Δ | -0.061 |
| Sample | 21.0 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 38.4 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 162 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.0% | 19.2% to 30.8% | +/- 5.8% |
| BB% | 8.9% | 5.0% to 12.6% | +/- 3.8% |
| Whiff% | 24.1% | 19.4% to 30.3% | +/- 5.4% |
| HR/9 | 1.14 | 0.50 to 2.05 | +/- 0.78 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.311 | 0.245 to 0.366 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.2% | 4.7% to 12.6% | +/- 3.9% |
| ERA | 3.78 | 2.33 to 6.69 | +/- 2.18 |
| FIP | 3.98 | 2.37 to 6.27 | +/- 1.95 |
| WHIP | 1.297 | 0.988 to 1.618 | +/- 0.315 |
341 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.285 |
| K% | 21.3% |
| BB% | 8.6% |
| Barrel | 8.3% |
427 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.275 |
| K% | 23.2% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 8.4% |