Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Mears, Nick

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
24.0% K%
Range
19.2% to 30.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 30 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
12
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
14
Arsenal6 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.93
ERA current pace5.12
ERA rolling p504.27
Observed weight28%
ERA
2.59 3.38 4.27 5.15 5.95
FIP
2.87 3.58 4.37 5.16 5.87
K%
19.1% 21.2% 23.5% 25.8% 27.9%
BB%
6.9% 8.4% 9.9% 11.5% 12.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.67
7
ERA5.12
23
BB%13.7%
9 -37 vs proj
K%17.9%
18 -43 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.382
4 -49 vs proj
Barrel allowed12.5%
5 -37 vs proj
Fastball velo94.5
51
Hard-hit allowed51.6%
0
Whiff%17.8%
10 -49 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+98
21
Curveball Stuff+103
61
Fastball Stuff+99
25
Mithrandir Stuff+101
43
Sinker Stuff+109
96
Slider Stuff+102
47
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mears, Nick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.382 2026-07-06: 0.3822026-07-07: 0.3822026-07-08: 0.3822026-07-09: 0.3822026-07-10: 0.3822026-07-11: 0.3822026-07-12: 0.3822026-07-13: 0.3822026-07-14: 0.3822026-07-15: 0.3822026-07-16: 0.3822026-07-17: 0.382 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mears, Nick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 52%52% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mears, Nick · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 37.0%Slider: 28.1%Curveball: 13.2%Sinker: 11.1%Changeup: 10.6% FF37% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 37%SL 28%CU 13%SI 11%CH 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mears, Nick · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 37% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 94.8 mphFF95 mphSlider: 28% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 84.7 mphSL85 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 81.3 mphCU81 mphSinker: 11% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 93.8 mphSI94 mphChangeup: 11% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.5 mphCH84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 37.0% 126 99 limited sample
SL 27.3% 93 102 limited sample
CB 13.5% 46 103 limited sample
SI 11.7% 40 109 limited sample
CH 10.6% 36 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 54%, Slider 43%, Curveball 4%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.34
K% Δ-0.061
Sample21.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings37.8----
Batters Faced160----
K%24.0%19.2% to 30.8%+/- 5.8%
BB%8.9%5.0% to 12.6%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%24.1%19.4% to 30.3%+/- 5.4%
HR/91.140.50 to 2.05+/- 0.78
xwOBA Against0.3110.245 to 0.366+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed8.2%4.7% to 12.6%+/- 3.9%
ERA3.782.33 to 6.69+/- 2.18
FIP3.982.37 to 6.27+/- 1.95
WHIP1.2970.988 to 1.618+/- 0.315
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

341 career BF

xwOBA0.285
K%21.3%
BB%8.6%
Barrel8.3%
vs RHH

427 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%23.2%
BB%7.3%
Barrel8.4%