Chivilli, Angel
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.74 |
| ERA current pace | 3.86 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.75 |
| Observed weight | 7% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CH | 46.7% | 28 | 85 | limited sample |
| SL | 26.7% | 16 | 102 | limited sample |
| FB | 26.7% | 16 | 99 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 37.5 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 172 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.3% | 12.4% to 30.3% | +/- 8.9% |
| BB% | 9.1% | 5.0% to 13.2% | +/- 4.1% |
| Whiff% | 29.8% | 24.3% to 38.5% | +/- 7.1% |
| HR/9 | 1.13 | 0.19 to 3.27 | +/- 1.54 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.292 | 0.260 to 0.369 | +/- 0.054 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 9.0% | 3.5% to 15.9% | +/- 6.2% |
| ERA | 3.90 | 1.43 to 7.51 | +/- 3.04 |
| FIP | 4.56 | 3.45 to 8.17 | +/- 2.36 |
| WHIP | 1.349 | 0.984 to 1.761 | +/- 0.389 |
182 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.334 |
| K% | 15.5% |
| BB% | 9.1% |
| Barrel | 11.3% |
238 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.331 |
| K% | 17.5% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 11.7% |