Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Henriquez, Edgardo

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
21.9% K%
Range
13.7% to 29.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
79
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
86
Arsenal5 metrics
67
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-15
ERA preseason3.42
ERA current pace2.85
ERA rolling p503.12
Observed weight52%
ERA
1.21 2.11 3.12 4.13 5.04
FIP
2.37 2.77 3.22 3.67 4.07
K%
20.6% 22.5% 24.7% 26.9% 28.8%
BB%
7.6% 8.7% 10.0% 11.3% 12.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.09
87
ERA2.85
86
BB%9.8%
40
K%27.5%
84 +36 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.254
96 +42 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.1%
98 +52 vs proj
Fastball velo100.8
100
Hard-hit allowed28.7%
98
Whiff%27.6%
84 +26 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Fastball Stuff+101
40
Mithrandir Stuff+105
75
Cutter Stuff+110
99
Sinker Stuff+106
79
Slider Stuff+101
43
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Henriquez, Edgardo · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.254 2026-10-04: 0.2442026-10-05: 0.2452026-10-06: 0.2452026-10-07: 0.2452026-10-08: 0.2482026-10-09: 0.2482026-10-10: 0.2482026-10-11: 0.2482026-10-12: 0.2482026-10-13: 0.2542026-10-14: 0.2542026-10-15: 0.254 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Henriquez, Edgardo · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 29%29% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Henriquez, Edgardo · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 34.3%Sinker: 25.6%Slider: 21.4%Cutter: 14.7%Curveball: 3.9% FF34% · 101 mphprimary pitch FF 34%SI 26%SL 21%FC 15%CU 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Henriquez, Edgardo · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 34% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 100.7 mphFF101 mphSinker: 26% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 100.9 mphSI101 mphSlider: 21% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 87.4 mphSL87 mphCutter: 15% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 94.8 mphFC95 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 82.1 mphCU82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 37.1% 239 101 qualified
SI 24.4% 157 106 limited sample
SL 23.9% 154 101 limited sample
FC 13.4% 86 110 limited sample
CB 1.2% 8 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 33%, Sinker 27%, Cutter 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.02
K% Δ+0.057
Sample64.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.1----
Batters Faced149----
K%21.9%13.7% to 29.2%+/- 7.7%
BB%10.3%6.5% to 15.3%+/- 4.4%
Whiff%23.7%19.2% to 31.4%+/- 6.1%
HR/91.030.52 to 2.35+/- 0.91
xwOBA Against0.3090.234 to 0.357+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed7.7%2.8% to 14.7%+/- 6.0%
ERA3.880.22 to 5.63+/- 2.71
FIP4.042.94 to 5.35+/- 1.20
WHIP1.3181.024 to 1.785+/- 0.381
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

44 career BF

xwOBA0.259
K%15.9%
BB%10.6%
Barrel11.0%
vs RHH

90 career BF

xwOBA0.244
K%15.8%
BB%9.5%
Barrel8.9%