Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Gordon, Tanner

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.4% K%
Range
14.2% to 25.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
45
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
34
Arsenal6 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-03
ERA preseason4.47
ERA current pace5.18
ERA rolling p504.91
Observed weight62%
ERA
3.44 4.14 4.91 5.69 6.39
FIP
3.63 4.03 4.48 4.92 5.32
K%
16.0% 17.2% 18.6% 20.0% 21.2%
BB%
3.4% 4.0% 4.6% 5.2% 5.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.40
36
ERA5.18
23
BB%4.2%
98
K%19.0%
28
xwOBA allowed0.323
38
Barrel allowed9.9%
18
Fastball velo92.7
23
Hard-hit allowed42.4%
22
Whiff%19.2%
21
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-03
Changeup Stuff+107
86
Fastball Stuff+105
66
Mithrandir Stuff+104
66
Slider Stuff+104
69
Curveball Stuff+102
39
Sinker Stuff+97
19
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gordon, Tanner · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.323 2026-08-23: 0.3372026-08-24: 0.3372026-08-25: 0.3332026-08-26: 0.3332026-08-27: 0.3232026-08-28: 0.3232026-08-29: 0.3232026-08-30: 0.3232026-08-31: 0.3232026-09-01: 0.3232026-09-02: 0.3232026-09-03: 0.323 2026-08-23 2026-09-03 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gordon, Tanner · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 54%54%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gordon, Tanner · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 43.3%Slider: 22.7%Changeup: 21.7%Curveball: 9.0%Sinker: 3.2% FF43% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 43%SL 23%CH 22%CU 9%SI 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gordon, Tanner · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 43% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 92.8 mphFF93 mphSlider: 23% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 86.9 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 22% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 84.6 mphCH85 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 81.1 mphCU81 mphSinker: 3% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 92.0 mphSI92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 38.6% 371 105 qualified
SL 24.6% 236 104 qualified
CH 22.8% 219 107 qualified
CB 8.5% 82 102 limited sample
SI 5.5% 53 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 53%, Slider 26%, Changeup 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.03
K% Δ-0.004
Sample92.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings137.8----
Batters Faced623----
K%19.4%14.2% to 25.4%+/- 5.6%
BB%5.2%2.5% to 7.1%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%18.3%13.9% to 22.8%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.600.80 to 2.57+/- 0.88
xwOBA Against0.3370.286 to 0.380+/- 0.047
Barrel% Allowed8.7%5.1% to 11.9%+/- 3.4%
ERA5.213.21 to 7.27+/- 2.03
FIP4.612.93 to 5.25+/- 1.16
WHIP1.3621.136 to 1.660+/- 0.262
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

257 career BF

xwOBA0.302
K%14.8%
BB%4.2%
Barrel9.4%
vs RHH

240 career BF

xwOBA0.293
K%15.9%
BB%3.3%
Barrel7.7%