Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Slider 31%, Changeup 16%.
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026
Sheehan, Emmet
Breaking-ball driven starter profile
Team LAD
Archetype Breaking-ball attack
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.86 |
| ERA current pace | 4.70 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.29 |
| Observed weight | 51% |
ERA
3.26
3.75
4.29
4.84
5.33
FIP
2.91
3.34
3.82
4.30
4.73
K%
23.2%
24.7%
26.3%
27.9%
29.3%
BB%
5.8%
6.6%
7.4%
8.3%
9.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.7%
77
Barrel allowed9.8%
27
Fastball velo94.2
47
Hard-hit allowed39.6%
48
K%26.9%
80
+21 vs proj
Whiff%29.6%
88
+15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.312
50
-16 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+104
70
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
43%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 42.4% | 372 | 104 | qualified |
| SL | 31.9% | 280 | 103 | qualified |
| CH | 16.4% | 144 | 108 | limited sample |
| CB | 9.2% | 81 | 102 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +1.00 |
| K% Δ | +0.030 |
| Sample | 59.0 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 68.8 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 291 | -- | -- |
| K% | 23.9% | 21.0% to 31.0% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 7.9% | 5.8% to 10.8% | +/- 2.5% |
| Whiff% | 26.3% | 22.8% to 30.7% | +/- 4.0% |
| HR/9 | 1.32 | 0.72 to 1.92 | +/- 0.60 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.296 | 0.257 to 0.316 | +/- 0.029 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.4% | 5.4% to 12.3% | +/- 3.4% |
| ERA | 3.70 | 2.32 to 5.24 | +/- 1.46 |
| FIP | 3.69 | 2.51 to 5.08 | +/- 1.28 |
| WHIP | 1.155 | 0.928 to 1.467 | +/- 0.270 |
vs LHH
262 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.249 |
| K% | 22.7% |
| BB% | 9.1% |
| Barrel | 9.5% |
vs RHH
337 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.241 |
| K% | 23.1% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 8.1% |