Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Brown, Hunter

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
26.5% K%
Range
22.7% to 32.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
53
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
58
Arsenal6 metrics
63
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.35
45
ERA3.51
66
BB%13.0%
11
K%25.5%
73
xwOBA allowed0.293
72
Barrel allowed6.0%
72
Fastball velo96.1
76
Hard-hit allowed38.4%
50
Whiff%23.9%
58
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-02
Fastball Stuff+102
50
Mithrandir Stuff+104
64
Sinker Stuff+102
53
Changeup Stuff+105
78
Curveball Stuff+102
43
Slider Stuff+108
90
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Brown, Hunter · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.293 2026-08-22: 0.3032026-08-23: 0.3032026-08-24: 0.3032026-08-25: 0.3012026-08-26: 0.3012026-08-27: 0.3012026-08-28: 0.3012026-08-29: 0.3012026-08-30: 0.2932026-08-31: 0.2932026-09-01: 0.2932026-09-02: 0.293 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Brown, Hunter · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Brown, Hunter · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 32.3%Sinker: 29.4%Knuckle Curve: 19.9%Changeup: 9.5%Slider: 8.8%Cutter: 0.1% FF32% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 32%SI 29%KC 20%CH 10%SL 9%FC 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Brown, Hunter · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 32% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 96.3 mphFF96 mphSinker: 29% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 96.0 mphSI96 mphKnuckle Curve: 20% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 83.4 mphKC83 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.7 mphCH88 mphSlider: 9% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 90.7 mphSL91 mphCutter: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.7 mphFC96 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 33.8% 251 102 qualified
FB 30.6% 227 102 qualified
CB 18.1% 134 102 limited sample
SL 9.2% 68 108 limited sample
CH 8.4% 62 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 37%, Sinker 23%, Knuckle Curve 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample82.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings146.7----
Batters Faced613----
K%26.5%22.7% to 32.6%+/- 4.9%
BB%7.9%6.3% to 10.6%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%24.6%21.4% to 29.0%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.210.79 to 1.77+/- 0.49
xwOBA Against0.2950.272 to 0.330+/- 0.029
Barrel% Allowed7.2%4.9% to 9.8%+/- 2.4%
ERA3.262.61 to 5.11+/- 1.25
FIP3.442.86 to 4.43+/- 0.79
WHIP1.1501.032 to 1.444+/- 0.206
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1216 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%26.4%
BB%9.6%
Barrel6.8%
vs RHH

1152 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%24.3%
BB%6.6%
Barrel6.1%