Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Johnson, Seth

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.7% K%
Range
16.4% to 33.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
28
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
36
Arsenal5 metrics
53
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-15
ERA preseason3.93
ERA current pace5.88
ERA rolling p504.73
Observed weight41%
ERA
3.03 3.83 4.73 5.62 6.42
FIP
2.75 3.32 3.96 4.59 5.17
K%
20.0% 22.5% 25.3% 28.1% 30.6%
BB%
6.9% 8.2% 9.7% 11.2% 12.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.65
9
ERA5.88
12
BB%12.7%
14 -33 vs proj
K%25.9%
76
xwOBA allowed0.331
29 -42 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.1%
7 -39 vs proj
Fastball velo97.4
91
Hard-hit allowed44.4%
12
Whiff%26.1%
76
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Curveball Stuff+97
5
Fastball Stuff+103
56
Mithrandir Stuff+106
81
Sinker Stuff+98
25
Slider Stuff+111
97
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Johnson, Seth · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.331 2026-10-04: 0.3312026-10-05: 0.3312026-10-06: 0.3312026-10-07: 0.3312026-10-08: 0.3312026-10-09: 0.3312026-10-10: 0.3312026-10-11: 0.3312026-10-12: 0.3312026-10-13: 0.3312026-10-14: 0.3312026-10-15: 0.331 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Johnson, Seth · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 43%43%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Johnson, Seth · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 46.1%Slider: 33.1%Sinker: 9.0%Curveball: 5.0%Sweeper: 4.9%Split-Finger: 1.9% FF46% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 46%SL 33%SI 9%CU 5%ST 5%FS 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Johnson, Seth · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 46% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 97.7 mphFF98 mphSlider: 33% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 88.4 mphSL88 mphSinker: 9% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 95.7 mphSI96 mphCurveball: 5% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 82.2 mphCU82 mphSweeper: 5% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 84.7 mphST85 mphSplit-Finger: 2% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 91.5 mphFS91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 46.4% 160 103 limited sample
SL 36.2% 125 111 limited sample
SI 11.0% 38 98 limited sample
CB 6.4% 22 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 51%, Slider 34%, Split-Finger 7%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.06
K% Δ+0.006
Sample35.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.8----
Batters Faced144----
K%24.7%16.4% to 33.2%+/- 8.4%
BB%9.2%3.6% to 11.9%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%24.6%15.4% to 32.1%+/- 8.3%
HR/91.290.64 to 2.16+/- 0.76
xwOBA Against0.3040.141 to 0.323+/- 0.091
Barrel% Allowed7.7%2.8% to 10.8%+/- 4.0%
ERA3.822.29 to 7.02+/- 2.36
FIP3.672.31 to 5.67+/- 1.68
WHIP1.2880.871 to 1.635+/- 0.382
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

32 career BF

xwOBA0.168
K%18.8%
BB%6.1%
Barrel5.7%
vs RHH

40 career BF

xwOBA0.160
K%19.0%
BB%4.2%
Barrel5.0%