Johnson, Seth
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.99 |
| ERA current pace | 7.36 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.35 |
| Observed weight | 11% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 46.5% | 40 | 99 | limited sample |
| SL | 34.9% | 30 | 113 | limited sample |
| CB | 11.6% | 10 | 92 | limited sample |
| SI | 7.0% | 6 | 82 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 30.7 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 139 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.7% | 16.3% to 33.2% | +/- 8.4% |
| BB% | 9.2% | 3.6% to 11.9% | +/- 4.2% |
| Whiff% | 25.0% | 15.4% to 32.1% | +/- 8.3% |
| HR/9 | 1.32 | 0.65 to 2.20 | +/- 0.77 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.302 | 0.143 to 0.328 | +/- 0.092 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.7% | 2.8% to 10.8% | +/- 4.0% |
| ERA | 3.88 | 2.33 to 7.14 | +/- 2.40 |
| FIP | 3.67 | 2.31 to 5.67 | +/- 1.68 |
| WHIP | 1.282 | 0.867 to 1.627 | +/- 0.380 |
32 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.168 |
| K% | 18.8% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 5.7% |
40 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.160 |
| K% | 19.0% |
| BB% | 4.2% |
| Barrel | 5.0% |