Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Barnett, Mason

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.1% K%
Range
13.0% to 27.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
31
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
30
Arsenal4 metrics
46
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.44
ERA current pace4.64
ERA rolling p504.50
Observed weight27%
ERA
3.14 3.78 4.50 5.21 5.86
FIP
3.89 4.31 4.77 5.23 5.65
K%
15.2% 17.7% 20.5% 23.3% 25.8%
BB%
7.5% 8.7% 10.0% 11.2% 12.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
38
ERA4.64
32
BB%13.3%
10 -32 vs proj
K%23.3%
57
xwOBA allowed0.347
18 -26 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.5%
15 -20 vs proj
Fastball velo94.9
57
Hard-hit allowed43.9%
19
Whiff%19.5%
21 -22 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Curveball Stuff+103
69
Fastball Stuff+93
7
Mithrandir Stuff+99
29
Slider Stuff+106
79
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

8 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Barnett, Mason · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.347 2026-07-10: 0.3422026-07-11: 0.3422026-07-12: 0.3472026-07-13: 0.3472026-07-14: 0.3472026-07-15: 0.3472026-07-16: 0.3472026-07-17: 0.347 2026-07-10 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Barnett, Mason · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Barnett, Mason · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 42.2%Slider: 26.0%Sweeper: 16.9%Curveball: 12.2%Changeup: 2.6% FF42% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 42%SL 26%ST 17%CU 12%CH 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Barnett, Mason · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 42% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.9 mphFF95 mphSlider: 26% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 87.6 mphSL88 mphSweeper: 17% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 83.4 mphST83 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 79.2 mphCU79 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.8 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 47.3% 80 106 limited sample
FB 34.9% 59 93 limited sample
CB 14.2% 24 103 limited sample
CH 3.6% 6 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 53%, Sweeper 21%, Curveball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.27
K% Δ+0.013
Sample21.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.0----
Batters Faced289----
K%22.1%13.0% to 27.0%+/- 7.0%
BB%9.2%5.9% to 11.6%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%22.1%15.6% to 26.2%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.500.49 to 1.87+/- 0.69
xwOBA Against0.3190.240 to 0.346+/- 0.053
Barrel% Allowed8.7%6.1% to 12.4%+/- 3.1%
ERA4.913.36 to 6.86+/- 1.75
FIP4.312.96 to 5.21+/- 1.13
WHIP1.3991.093 to 1.732+/- 0.319
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

42 career BF

xwOBA0.218
K%13.1%
BB%8.4%
Barrel7.7%
vs RHH

62 career BF

xwOBA0.213
K%14.5%
BB%6.4%
Barrel8.8%