Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Young, Brandon

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.0% K%
Range
14.1% to 24.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
49
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal5 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason4.49
ERA current pace3.38
ERA rolling p503.70
Observed weight71%
ERA
2.45 3.05 3.70 4.36 4.95
FIP
3.63 4.05 4.51 4.98 5.39
K%
16.8% 17.8% 18.9% 20.0% 21.0%
BB%
6.9% 7.5% 8.2% 8.8% 9.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
50
ERA3.38
71
BB%8.2%
58
K%18.8%
27
xwOBA allowed0.320
41
Barrel allowed6.7%
62 +28 vs proj
Fastball velo94.2
46
Hard-hit allowed40.0%
38
Whiff%21.6%
41
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Fastball Stuff+106
76
Mithrandir Stuff+104
68
Curveball Stuff+104
69
Sinker Stuff+101
48
Slider Stuff+98
26
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Young, Brandon · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.320 2026-08-25: 0.3222026-08-26: 0.3222026-08-27: 0.3222026-08-28: 0.3222026-08-29: 0.3222026-08-30: 0.3212026-08-31: 0.3212026-09-01: 0.3212026-09-02: 0.3212026-09-03: 0.3212026-09-04: 0.3202026-09-05: 0.320 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Young, Brandon · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Young, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 40.2%Split-Finger: 18.7%Slider: 15.5%Sinker: 13.7%Curveball: 11.9% FF40% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 40%FS 19%SL 16%SI 14%CU 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Young, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 40% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 94.4 mphFF94 mphSplit-Finger: 19% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 84.4 mphFS84 mphSlider: 16% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.4 mphSL84 mphSinker: 14% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.8 mphSI94 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 65″ drop, 75.2 mphCU75 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.3% 473 106 qualified
SL 18.4% 173 98 limited sample
SI 16.6% 156 101 limited sample
CB 14.7% 138 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Split-Finger 18%, Curveball 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.47
K% Δ-0.022
Sample134.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings139.8----
Batters Faced626----
K%21.0%14.1% to 24.2%+/- 5.0%
BB%8.2%5.5% to 10.2%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%21.3%15.7% to 24.0%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.490.77 to 2.21+/- 0.72
xwOBA Against0.3240.259 to 0.356+/- 0.049
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.6% to 11.3%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.853.50 to 6.76+/- 1.63
FIP4.783.35 to 5.63+/- 1.14
WHIP1.3891.101 to 1.760+/- 0.329
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

144 career BF

xwOBA0.239
K%13.6%
BB%7.3%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

112 career BF

xwOBA0.225
K%15.5%
BB%5.2%
Barrel7.2%