Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Sproat, Brandon

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.6% K%
Range
14.2% to 28.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Balanced reliever Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.53
ERA current pace5.84
ERA rolling p505.18
Observed weight49%
ERA
3.95 4.53 5.18 5.82 6.40
FIP
3.61 4.15 4.76 5.36 5.91
K%
18.1% 20.0% 22.1% 24.2% 26.1%
BB%
7.8% 8.9% 10.0% 11.2% 12.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%12.5%
12 -43 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.2%
32 -34 vs proj
Fastball velo96.4
81
Hard-hit allowed40.4%
44
K%24.6%
64 +18 vs proj
Whiff%22.9%
48 +29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.352
16 -26 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+101
40
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sproat, Brandon · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3452026-05-19: 0.3452026-05-21: 0.3452026-05-23: 0.3452026-05-24: 0.3452026-05-25: 0.3442026-05-26: 0.3442026-05-28: 0.3442026-05-29: 0.3442026-05-30: 0.3442026-05-31: 0.3442026-06-01: 0.352 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sproat, Brandon · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sproat, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 28.2%Cutter: 26.0%4-Seam Fastball: 17.6%Curveball: 11.9%Sweeper: 9.6%Changeup: 6.7% MIX SI 28%FC 26%FF 18%CU 12%ST 10%CH 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sproat, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.4, IVB 2.0SIFC: HB -0.0, IVB 1.9FCFF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.3FFCU: HB 0.5, IVB 4.3CUST: HB -0.9, IVB 2.6STCH: HB -0.9, IVB 2.5CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 28.0% 197 103 limited sample
SI 27.0% 190 101 limited sample
FB 15.6% 110 99 limited sample
CB 12.8% 90 98 limited sample
SL 9.8% 69 98 limited sample
CH 6.8% 48 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 35%, Sweeper 19%, Curveball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.75
K% Δ+0.029
Sample51.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.2----
Batters Faced265----
K%21.6%14.2% to 28.3%+/- 7.0%
BB%8.4%5.1% to 12.0%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%19.0%10.8% to 23.1%+/- 6.1%
HR/91.060.05 to 1.67+/- 0.81
xwOBA Against0.3230.251 to 0.354+/- 0.051
Barrel% Allowed6.6%2.2% to 8.7%+/- 3.2%
ERA4.092.90 to 6.38+/- 1.74
FIP3.792.08 to 5.33+/- 1.63
WHIP1.3500.891 to 1.618+/- 0.364
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

42 career BF

xwOBA0.231
K%14.8%
BB%6.2%
Barrel2.9%
vs RHH

42 career BF

xwOBA0.220
K%15.6%
BB%5.5%
Barrel2.9%