Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Hughes, Gabriel

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.7% K%
Range
4.8% to 25.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Volatile contact Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
34
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
42
Arsenal6 metrics
35
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
ERA preseason2.64
ERA current pace6.54
ERA rolling p504.46
Observed weight47%
ERA
2.96 3.67 4.46 5.25 5.97
FIP
1.56 2.48 3.49 4.51 5.42
K%
13.3% 15.9% 18.9% 21.8% 24.5%
BB%
5.0% 6.0% 7.2% 8.5% 9.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.48
23
ERA6.54
6
BB%9.0%
49
K%18.0%
20 -20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.295
71
Barrel allowed4.6%
89 +56 vs proj
Fastball velo92.4
19
Hard-hit allowed29.1%
97
Whiff%15.9%
4 -39 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-08-31
Changeup Stuff+98
22
Curveball Stuff+103
59
Fastball Stuff+101
39
Mithrandir Stuff+100
31
Sinker Stuff+98
23
Slider Stuff+101
39
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 54%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hughes, Gabriel · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.295 2026-08-20: 0.2872026-08-21: 0.2872026-08-22: 0.2872026-08-23: 0.2872026-08-24: 0.2872026-08-25: 0.2892026-08-26: 0.2892026-08-27: 0.2892026-08-28: 0.2952026-08-29: 0.2952026-08-30: 0.2952026-08-31: 0.295 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hughes, Gabriel · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 29%29% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hughes, Gabriel · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 53.8%Changeup: 11.1%Curveball: 9.9%Slider: 9.6%Sinker: 8.8%Sweeper: 6.8% FF54% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 54%CH 11%CU 10%SL 10%SI 9%ST 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hughes, Gabriel · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 54% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 92.3 mphFF92 mphChangeup: 11% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 87.6 mphCH88 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 78.6 mphCU79 mphSlider: 10% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.4 mphSL86 mphSinker: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.7 mphSI93 mphSweeper: 7% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.5 mphST85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 46.6% 158 101 limited sample
CH 14.2% 48 98 limited sample
SL 13.3% 45 101 limited sample
SI 13.3% 45 98 limited sample
CB 12.7% 43 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.42
K% Δ-0.027
Sample46.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings70.1----
Batters Faced294----
K%20.7%4.8% to 25.0%+/- 10.1%
BB%8.1%0.8% to 8.1%+/- 3.7%
Whiff%22.0%5.2% to 28.0%+/- 11.4%
HR/91.570.05 to 1.41+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.2840.006 to 0.303+/- 0.148
Barrel% Allowed8.5%1.0% to 10.1%+/- 4.6%
ERA4.120.24 to 4.48+/- 2.12
FIP4.030.31 to 5.76+/- 2.72
WHIP1.1670.091 to 1.268+/- 0.589
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

4 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%6.0%
BB%0.1%
Barrel2.4%
vs RHH

5 career BF

xwOBA0.003
K%6.3%
BB%0.1%
Barrel2.4%