Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Kelly, Kevin

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.2% K%
Range
16.6% to 31.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.54
ERA current pace2.92
ERA rolling p503.35
Observed weight30%
ERA
1.72 2.50 3.35 4.21 4.98
FIP
2.48 3.09 3.76 4.44 5.05
K%
15.6% 18.0% 20.8% 23.6% 26.1%
BB%
2.8% 4.0% 5.3% 6.7% 7.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%4.8%
95
Barrel allowed7.7%
51
Fastball velo91.5
12
Hard-hit allowed44.9%
17
K%18.1%
20 -22 vs proj
Whiff%16.3%
7 -22 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.298
65 +20 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+107
89
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 60%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kelly, Kevin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2812026-05-19: 0.2822026-05-21: 0.2882026-05-23: 0.2892026-05-24: 0.2892026-05-25: 0.3072026-05-26: 0.3072026-05-28: 0.3072026-05-29: 0.3072026-05-30: 0.3072026-05-31: 0.2982026-06-01: 0.298 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kelly, Kevin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kelly, Kevin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 59.9%Changeup: 20.9%Sweeper: 13.3%4-Seam Fastball: 4.4%Cutter: 1.5% MIX SI 60%CH 21%ST 13%FF 4%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kelly, Kevin · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.3, IVB 3.1SICH: HB -0.3, IVB 3.8CHST: HB -1.2, IVB 3.3STFF: HB -0.6, IVB 1.8FFFC: HB -0.1, IVB 2.1FC horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 61.3% 222 107 qualified
CH 21.0% 76 102 limited sample
SL 12.2% 44 108 limited sample
FB 4.7% 17 96 limited sample
FC 0.8% 3 92 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.314 vs 0.285 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 59%, Sweeper 20%, Cutter 13%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.06
K% Δ-0.031
Sample28.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.1----
Batters Faced164----
K%21.2%16.6% to 31.0%+/- 7.2%
BB%5.4%1.9% to 8.8%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%20.5%16.3% to 27.3%+/- 5.5%
HR/91.410.42 to 2.02+/- 0.80
xwOBA Against0.3180.257 to 0.380+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed8.0%4.2% to 12.0%+/- 3.9%
ERA4.001.80 to 6.09+/- 2.15
FIP3.932.36 to 5.74+/- 1.69
WHIP1.1740.910 to 1.502+/- 0.296
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

316 career BF

xwOBA0.314
K%20.9%
BB%4.5%
Barrel8.8%
vs RHH

470 career BF

xwOBA0.285
K%21.5%
BB%3.6%
Barrel7.1%