Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Kelly, Kevin

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.2% K%
Range
16.5% to 31.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-16
83
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
62
Arsenal5 metrics
72
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-16
ERA preseason3.54
ERA current pace2.44
ERA rolling p502.94
Observed weight55%
ERA
1.41 2.13 2.94 3.74 4.46
FIP
2.24 2.81 3.44 4.07 4.64
K%
18.2% 20.0% 21.9% 23.8% 25.6%
BB%
3.0% 3.8% 4.8% 5.7% 6.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.93
97
ERA2.44
92
BB%4.1%
99
K%21.8%
47
xwOBA allowed0.283
82 +40 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.7%
78 +39 vs proj
Fastball velo91.5
10
Hard-hit allowed45.3%
8
Whiff%21.4%
40
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-16
Mithrandir Stuff+108
95
Sinker Stuff+110
96
Changeup Stuff+104
63
Fastball Stuff+97
18
Slider Stuff+107
88
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 57%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kelly, Kevin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.283 2026-10-05: 0.2842026-10-06: 0.2842026-10-07: 0.2842026-10-08: 0.2832026-10-09: 0.2832026-10-10: 0.2832026-10-11: 0.2832026-10-12: 0.2832026-10-13: 0.2832026-10-14: 0.2832026-10-15: 0.2832026-10-16: 0.283 2026-10-05 2026-10-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kelly, Kevin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kelly, Kevin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 57.3%Changeup: 27.9%Sweeper: 7.2%4-Seam Fastball: 7.0%Cutter: 0.6% SI57% · 91 mphprimary pitch SI 57%CH 28%ST 7%FF 7%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kelly, Kevin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 57% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 91.3 mphSI91 mphChangeup: 28% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 85.8 mphCH86 mphSweeper: 7% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 78.3 mphST78 mph4-Seam Fastball: 7% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.1 mphFF93 mphCutter: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 89.1 mphFC89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 57.9% 369 110 qualified
CH 26.4% 168 104 limited sample
SL 8.2% 52 107 limited sample
FB 7.1% 45 97 limited sample
FC 0.5% 3 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.314 vs 0.285 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 59%, Sweeper 20%, Cutter 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.56
K% Δ+0.006
Sample75.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings42.2----
Batters Faced177----
K%21.2%16.5% to 31.0%+/- 7.2%
BB%5.4%1.9% to 8.8%+/- 3.4%
Whiff%20.5%16.3% to 27.3%+/- 5.5%
HR/91.390.42 to 2.02+/- 0.80
xwOBA Against0.3160.257 to 0.380+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed8.0%4.1% to 12.0%+/- 3.9%
ERA4.021.79 to 6.09+/- 2.15
FIP3.962.36 to 5.74+/- 1.69
WHIP1.1750.913 to 1.502+/- 0.295
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

316 career BF

xwOBA0.314
K%20.9%
BB%4.5%
Barrel8.8%
vs RHH

470 career BF

xwOBA0.285
K%21.5%
BB%3.6%
Barrel7.1%