Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026

Ribalta, Orlando

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.0% K%
Range
13.1% to 30.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team WSH Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
49
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal5 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.02
ERA current pace3.90
ERA rolling p503.98
Observed weight34%
ERA
1.91 2.89 3.98 5.07 6.06
FIP
3.14 3.64 4.19 4.74 5.24
K%
14.8% 17.6% 20.7% 23.9% 26.7%
BB%
6.8% 8.2% 9.8% 11.3% 12.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.23
64
ERA3.90
52
BB%9.8%
35
K%20.3%
35
xwOBA allowed0.307
57
Barrel allowed8.1%
43
Fastball velo96.7
83
Hard-hit allowed32.6%
88
Whiff%21.9%
41 -32 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+80
1
Fastball Stuff+104
63
Mithrandir Stuff+102
52
Sinker Stuff+105
73
Slider Stuff+106
82
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ribalta, Orlando · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.307 2026-07-06: 0.3042026-07-07: 0.2982026-07-08: 0.2982026-07-09: 0.2982026-07-10: 0.2932026-07-11: 0.2932026-07-12: 0.2932026-07-13: 0.3072026-07-14: 0.3072026-07-15: 0.3072026-07-16: 0.3072026-07-17: 0.307 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ribalta, Orlando · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ribalta, Orlando · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 38.3%4-Seam Fastball: 29.1%Sinker: 19.4%Changeup: 13.2% SL38% · 87 mphprimary pitch SL 38%FF 29%SI 19%CH 13% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ribalta, Orlando · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Slider: 38% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 86.8 mphSL87 mph4-Seam Fastball: 29% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 96.7 mphFF97 mphSinker: 19% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 96.8 mphSI97 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 86.0 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 36.9% 104 106 limited sample
FB 31.2% 88 104 limited sample
SI 19.1% 54 105 limited sample
CH 12.8% 36 80 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 36%, Slider 24%, Changeup 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.02
K% Δ-0.017
Sample30.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.8----
Batters Faced153----
K%22.0%13.1% to 30.4%+/- 8.7%
BB%9.7%6.2% to 14.5%+/- 4.1%
Whiff%26.3%20.2% to 32.0%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.210.53 to 2.35+/- 0.91
xwOBA Against0.3050.257 to 0.359+/- 0.051
Barrel% Allowed8.1%3.2% to 12.4%+/- 4.6%
ERA3.922.48 to 8.06+/- 2.79
FIP4.202.86 to 5.68+/- 1.41
WHIP1.3541.089 to 1.902+/- 0.406
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

68 career BF

xwOBA0.285
K%15.9%
BB%10.9%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

91 career BF

xwOBA0.271
K%17.3%
BB%8.0%
Barrel8.2%