Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Headrick, Brent

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
26.9% K%
Range
22.5% to 32.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
85
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
79
Arsenal4 metrics
61
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.96
ERA current pace1.93
ERA rolling p502.83
Observed weight56%
ERA
1.42 2.09 2.83 3.57 4.24
FIP
1.98 2.49 3.07 3.65 4.17
K%
25.9% 27.3% 28.9% 30.4% 31.8%
BB%
5.7% 6.5% 7.5% 8.4% 9.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.20
72
ERA1.93
97
BB%7.3%
73 +25 vs proj
K%30.0%
93
xwOBA allowed0.266
91 +49 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.8%
88 +65 vs proj
Fastball velo94.1
43
Hard-hit allowed36.9%
61
Whiff%29.4%
91
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Fastball Stuff+108
88
Mithrandir Stuff+104
71
Slider Stuff+97
19
Sinker Stuff+104
64
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Headrick, Brent · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.266 2026-08-25: 0.2672026-08-26: 0.2672026-08-27: 0.2692026-08-28: 0.2692026-08-29: 0.2692026-08-30: 0.2672026-08-31: 0.2672026-09-01: 0.2672026-09-02: 0.2662026-09-03: 0.2662026-09-04: 0.2662026-09-05: 0.266 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Headrick, Brent · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Headrick, Brent · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 49.7%Slider: 30.8%Split-Finger: 10.8%Sinker: 8.7% FF50% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 50%SL 31%FS 11%SI 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Headrick, Brent · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 50% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.2 mphFF94 mphSlider: 31% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 84.3 mphSL84 mphSplit-Finger: 11% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 84.8 mphFS85 mphSinker: 9% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 93.4 mphSI93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 54.9% 325 108 qualified
SL 34.0% 201 97 qualified
SI 11.1% 66 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 66%, Slider 22%, Split-Finger 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.67
K% Δ+0.031
Sample72.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings59.0----
Batters Faced249----
K%26.9%22.5% to 32.9%+/- 5.2%
BB%9.1%5.9% to 12.0%+/- 3.1%
Whiff%26.4%21.7% to 31.5%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.520.74 to 2.46+/- 0.86
xwOBA Against0.3180.246 to 0.338+/- 0.046
Barrel% Allowed9.2%5.7% to 12.8%+/- 3.6%
ERA3.601.78 to 5.75+/- 1.98
FIP3.742.53 to 5.61+/- 1.54
WHIP1.1930.933 to 1.546+/- 0.306
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

98 career BF

xwOBA0.246
K%25.2%
BB%6.8%
Barrel8.6%
vs RHH

141 career BF

xwOBA0.255
K%25.4%
BB%7.9%
Barrel9.7%