Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026

Schultz, Paxton

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.2% K%
Range
18.0% to 28.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team WSH Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 28 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
28
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
30
Arsenal5 metrics
29
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.72
5
ERA6.40
8
BB%7.8%
65
K%20.8%
41
xwOBA allowed0.342
22
Barrel allowed8.4%
35
Fastball velo93.6
35
Hard-hit allowed39.3%
44
Whiff%18.3%
14
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Changeup Stuff+93
8
Cutter Stuff+101
39
Fastball Stuff+103
57
Mithrandir Stuff+100
33
Slider Stuff+93
7
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Schultz, Paxton · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.342 2026-08-25: 0.3422026-08-26: 0.3422026-08-27: 0.3422026-08-28: 0.3422026-08-29: 0.3422026-08-30: 0.3422026-08-31: 0.3422026-09-01: 0.3422026-09-02: 0.3422026-09-03: 0.3422026-09-04: 0.3422026-09-05: 0.342 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Schultz, Paxton · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Schultz, Paxton · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 44.6%4-Seam Fastball: 33.9%Changeup: 14.3%Slider: 7.2% FC45% · 89 mphprimary pitch FC 45%FF 34%CH 14%SL 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Schultz, Paxton · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Cutter: 45% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 88.8 mphFC89 mph4-Seam Fastball: 34% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.6 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 86.7 mphCH87 mphSlider: 7% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.8 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 43.4% 174 101 limited sample
FB 35.2% 141 103 limited sample
CH 15.5% 62 93 limited sample
SL 6.0% 24 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 37%, Cutter 29%, Changeup 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample32.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings64.6----
Batters Faced283----
K%21.2%18.0% to 28.3%+/- 5.2%
BB%8.0%5.0% to 11.0%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%24.1%18.8% to 28.5%+/- 4.8%
HR/91.431.05 to 2.13+/- 0.54
xwOBA Against0.3180.262 to 0.353+/- 0.046
Barrel% Allowed8.8%5.3% to 12.8%+/- 3.8%
ERA4.403.08 to 6.24+/- 1.58
FIP4.162.87 to 5.09+/- 1.11
WHIP1.3461.066 to 1.672+/- 0.303
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

58 career BF

xwOBA0.242
K%18.7%
BB%6.6%
Barrel9.3%
vs RHH

53 career BF

xwOBA0.231
K%19.1%
BB%4.7%
Barrel9.3%