Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026

Schultz, Paxton

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.2% K%
Range
18.0% to 28.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team WSH Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 28 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
32
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal5 metrics
30
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.85
ERA current pace5.87
ERA rolling p505.24
Observed weight38%
ERA
4.09 4.63 5.24 5.84 6.38
FIP
3.44 3.83 4.26 4.68 5.07
K%
18.8% 20.6% 22.5% 24.4% 26.1%
BB%
5.3% 6.4% 7.5% 8.7% 9.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.65
8
ERA5.87
13
BB%7.6%
65
K%21.5%
43
xwOBA allowed0.335
29 -15 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.1%
28
Fastball velo93.6
35
Hard-hit allowed37.4%
61
Whiff%18.6%
15 -43 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Changeup Stuff+93
8
Cutter Stuff+101
47
Fastball Stuff+103
58
Mithrandir Stuff+100
35
Slider Stuff+92
4
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Schultz, Paxton · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.335 2026-07-07: 0.3352026-07-08: 0.3352026-07-09: 0.3352026-07-10: 0.3352026-07-11: 0.3352026-07-12: 0.3352026-07-13: 0.3352026-07-14: 0.3352026-07-15: 0.3352026-07-16: 0.3352026-07-17: 0.3352026-07-18: 0.335 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Schultz, Paxton · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Schultz, Paxton · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 43.1%4-Seam Fastball: 34.8%Changeup: 15.3%Slider: 6.8% FC43% · 89 mphprimary pitch FC 43%FF 35%CH 15%SL 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Schultz, Paxton · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Cutter: 43% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 88.7 mphFC89 mph4-Seam Fastball: 35% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.6 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 86.7 mphCH87 mphSlider: 7% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.7 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 42.4% 163 101 limited sample
FB 35.7% 137 103 limited sample
CH 16.1% 62 93 limited sample
SL 5.7% 22 92 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 37%, Cutter 29%, Changeup 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.47
K% Δ+0.002
Sample30.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings64.6----
Batters Faced283----
K%21.2%18.0% to 28.3%+/- 5.2%
BB%8.0%5.0% to 11.0%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%24.1%18.8% to 28.5%+/- 4.8%
HR/91.431.05 to 2.13+/- 0.54
xwOBA Against0.3180.262 to 0.353+/- 0.046
Barrel% Allowed8.8%5.3% to 12.8%+/- 3.8%
ERA4.403.08 to 6.24+/- 1.58
FIP4.162.87 to 5.09+/- 1.11
WHIP1.3461.066 to 1.672+/- 0.303
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

58 career BF

xwOBA0.242
K%18.7%
BB%6.6%
Barrel9.3%
vs RHH

53 career BF

xwOBA0.231
K%19.1%
BB%4.7%
Barrel9.3%