Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Spence, Mitch

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
19.3% K%
Range
14.3% to 25.5%
Live Δ
--
Team KC Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 28 Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.62
ERA current pace13.50
ERA rolling p505.34
Observed weight8%
ERA
3.54 4.39 5.34 6.29 7.14
FIP
4.00 4.46 4.98 5.49 5.95
K%
13.7% 16.2% 18.9% 21.7% 24.1%
BB%
5.9% 7.0% 8.2% 9.5% 10.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+92
9
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2025Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Spence, Mitch · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2025
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Spence, Mitch · 2025 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 45.3%Slider: 26.4%Curveball: 17.5%Sinker: 9.5%Changeup: 1.2%Pitch Out: 0.1% MIX FC 45%SL 26%CU 18%SI 10%CH 1%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Spence, Mitch · 2025 arsenal snapshot FC: HB -0.0, IVB 2.4FCSL: HB -0.5, IVB 3.0SLCU: HB 0.3, IVB 4.3CUSI: HB 0.2, IVB 2.3SICH: HB -0.5, IVB 2.7CHPO: HB 0.2, IVB 2.5PO horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 35.7% 30 83 limited sample
SI 21.4% 18 98 limited sample
SL 19.0% 16 104 limited sample
CB 13.1% 11 108 limited sample
CH 10.7% 9 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 45%, Slider 26%, Curveball 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings76.5----
Batters Faced341----
K%19.3%14.3% to 25.5%+/- 5.6%
BB%7.4%4.9% to 9.6%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%23.0%19.0% to 29.1%+/- 5.0%
HR/91.570.97 to 2.25+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3560.307 to 0.386+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed9.1%6.4% to 13.8%+/- 3.7%
ERA4.892.96 to 6.87+/- 1.95
FIP4.693.40 to 5.51+/- 1.06
WHIP1.4891.171 to 1.874+/- 0.352
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

487 career BF

xwOBA0.340
K%18.7%
BB%6.5%
Barrel11.6%
vs RHH

602 career BF

xwOBA0.337
K%16.9%
BB%6.6%
Barrel10.0%