Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Gasser, Robert

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.5% K%
Range
9.3% to 24.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
53
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
51
Arsenal6 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
ERA preseason3.38
ERA current pace4.79
ERA rolling p504.25
Observed weight61%
ERA
2.49 3.32 4.25 5.17 6.01
FIP
3.23 3.62 4.06 4.49 4.88
K%
16.8% 18.4% 20.1% 21.9% 23.5%
BB%
4.7% 5.5% 6.4% 7.2% 8.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.27
60
ERA4.79
30
BB%6.5%
83
K%22.3%
49
xwOBA allowed0.317
44
Barrel allowed6.5%
65 +24 vs proj
Fastball velo92.6
22
Hard-hit allowed34.7%
77
Whiff%20.0%
25 -32 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-08-31
Changeup Stuff+109
94
Cutter Stuff+101
41
Fastball Stuff+98
23
Mithrandir Stuff+102
52
Sinker Stuff+98
24
Slider Stuff+105
75
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 25%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gasser, Robert · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.317 2026-08-20: 0.3162026-08-21: 0.3162026-08-22: 0.3162026-08-23: 0.3162026-08-24: 0.3162026-08-25: 0.3172026-08-26: 0.3172026-08-27: 0.3172026-08-28: 0.3172026-08-29: 0.3172026-08-30: 0.3172026-08-31: 0.317 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gasser, Robert · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gasser, Robert · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 25.4%Sinker: 23.2%4-Seam Fastball: 22.6%Cutter: 19.2%Changeup: 9.6% ST25% · 80 mphprimary pitch ST 25%SI 23%FF 23%FC 19%CH 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gasser, Robert · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 25% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 80.5 mphST80 mphSinker: 23% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 92.5 mphSI92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 23% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 92.7 mphFF93 mphCutter: 19% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 88.2 mphFC88 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 88.0 mphCH88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 25.1% 112 105 limited sample
FC 21.7% 97 101 limited sample
FB 19.5% 87 98 limited sample
SI 19.1% 85 98 limited sample
CH 14.6% 65 109 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 38%, 4-Seam Fastball 31%, Sinker 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.85
K% Δ+0.017
Sample88.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings60.9----
Batters Faced278----
K%20.5%9.3% to 24.3%+/- 7.5%
BB%6.7%3.0% to 9.6%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%23.9%16.8% to 28.3%+/- 5.7%
HR/91.890.44 to 2.12+/- 0.84
xwOBA Against0.3160.233 to 0.359+/- 0.063
Barrel% Allowed8.1%3.0% to 9.9%+/- 3.4%
ERA3.940.35 to 5.21+/- 2.43
FIP4.472.92 to 5.20+/- 1.14
WHIP1.2970.982 to 1.638+/- 0.328
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

43 career BF

xwOBA0.223
K%14.1%
BB%4.4%
Barrel4.7%
vs RHH

144 career BF

xwOBA0.235
K%12.4%
BB%4.3%
Barrel4.8%