Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Gasser, Robert

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.5% K%
Range
9.3% to 24.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
62
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
54
Arsenal6 metrics
64
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-15
ERA preseason3.39
ERA current pace3.87
ERA rolling p503.72
Observed weight69%
ERA
1.89 2.75 3.72 4.68 5.55
FIP
3.10 3.51 3.96 4.41 4.82
K%
17.6% 19.0% 20.5% 22.0% 23.3%
BB%
5.3% 6.0% 6.7% 7.5% 8.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.15
79
ERA3.87
56
BB%7.1%
77
K%22.1%
50
xwOBA allowed0.315
47
Barrel allowed7.5%
48
Fastball velo92.9
25
Hard-hit allowed34.9%
77
Whiff%20.2%
29 -30 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Mithrandir Stuff+104
69
Changeup Stuff+107
88
Cutter Stuff+103
64
Fastball Stuff+99
25
Sinker Stuff+102
51
Slider Stuff+107
86
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 25%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gasser, Robert · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.315 2026-10-04: 0.3172026-10-05: 0.3172026-10-06: 0.3172026-10-07: 0.3172026-10-08: 0.3192026-10-09: 0.3192026-10-10: 0.3192026-10-11: 0.3192026-10-12: 0.3192026-10-13: 0.3192026-10-14: 0.3192026-10-15: 0.315 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gasser, Robert · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gasser, Robert · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 25.0%Sinker: 24.9%4-Seam Fastball: 21.4%Cutter: 17.7%Changeup: 10.4%Slider: 0.5% ST25% · 81 mphprimary pitch ST 25%SI 25%FF 21%FC 18%CH 10%SL 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gasser, Robert · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 25% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 80.6 mphST81 mphSinker: 25% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 92.8 mphSI93 mph4-Seam Fastball: 21% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 92.9 mphFF93 mphCutter: 18% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 88.5 mphFC89 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 88.3 mphCH88 mphSlider: 0% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 83.9 mphSL84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 24.2% 189 107 limited sample
SI 21.1% 165 102 limited sample
FB 20.7% 162 99 limited sample
FC 20.6% 161 103 limited sample
CH 13.3% 104 107 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 38%, 4-Seam Fastball 31%, Sinker 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.07
K% Δ+0.016
Sample124.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings58.7----
Batters Faced267----
K%20.5%9.3% to 24.4%+/- 7.5%
BB%6.7%3.0% to 9.6%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%23.8%16.8% to 28.3%+/- 5.7%
HR/91.890.44 to 2.12+/- 0.84
xwOBA Against0.3170.233 to 0.360+/- 0.063
Barrel% Allowed8.1%3.0% to 9.9%+/- 3.4%
ERA3.940.35 to 5.21+/- 2.43
FIP4.472.93 to 5.20+/- 1.14
WHIP1.2980.983 to 1.639+/- 0.328
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

43 career BF

xwOBA0.223
K%14.1%
BB%4.4%
Barrel4.7%
vs RHH

144 career BF

xwOBA0.235
K%12.4%
BB%4.3%
Barrel4.8%