Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Roycroft, Chris

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
21.1% K%
Range
13.0% to 28.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
8
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
17
Arsenal5 metrics
50
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-15
ERA preseason4.28
ERA current pace6.57
ERA rolling p505.31
Observed weight45%
ERA
3.45 4.33 5.31 6.29 7.18
FIP
4.23 4.77 5.37 5.97 6.50
K%
13.3% 15.5% 17.8% 20.2% 22.3%
BB%
8.0% 9.4% 11.0% 12.6% 14.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.91
1
ERA6.57
5
BB%11.6%
21
K%15.7%
9 -34 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.375
4 -32 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.1%
13 -50 vs proj
Fastball velo95.9
74
Hard-hit allowed43.2%
18
Whiff%15.1%
3 -44 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Cutter Stuff+101
49
Fastball Stuff+97
18
Mithrandir Stuff+102
51
Sinker Stuff+100
33
Slider Stuff+113
99
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Roycroft, Chris · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.375 2026-10-04: 0.3752026-10-05: 0.3752026-10-06: 0.3752026-10-07: 0.3752026-10-08: 0.3752026-10-09: 0.3752026-10-10: 0.3752026-10-11: 0.3752026-10-12: 0.3752026-10-13: 0.3752026-10-14: 0.3752026-10-15: 0.375 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Roycroft, Chris · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 15%15%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Roycroft, Chris · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 49.5%4-Seam Fastball: 23.5%Cutter: 20.2%Sweeper: 5.9%Changeup: 0.8% SI50% · 96 mphprimary pitch SI 50%FF 24%FC 20%ST 6%CH 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Roycroft, Chris · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Sinker: 50% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 96.3 mphSI96 mph4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 95.0 mphFF95 mphCutter: 20% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 89.1 mphFC89 mphSweeper: 6% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.0 mphST86 mphChangeup: 1% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 89.8 mphCH90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 46.9% 169 100 limited sample
FB 28.3% 102 97 limited sample
FC 17.8% 64 101 limited sample
SL 6.7% 24 113 limited sample
CH 0.3% 1 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 49%, 4-Seam Fastball 27%, Cutter 24%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.17
K% Δ-0.056
Sample40.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.8----
Batters Faced162----
K%21.1%13.0% to 28.6%+/- 7.8%
BB%10.3%5.9% to 15.9%+/- 5.0%
Whiff%22.3%15.1% to 27.0%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.150.40 to 2.32+/- 0.96
xwOBA Against0.3230.249 to 0.368+/- 0.059
Barrel% Allowed6.8%2.6% to 10.7%+/- 4.1%
ERA4.452.47 to 7.72+/- 2.62
FIP4.302.60 to 5.80+/- 1.60
WHIP1.4411.109 to 1.848+/- 0.370
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

105 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%15.0%
BB%12.6%
Barrel5.3%
vs RHH

170 career BF

xwOBA0.280
K%15.7%
BB%9.1%
Barrel5.7%