Roycroft, Chris
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.25 |
| ERA current pace | 12.27 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 5.24 |
| Observed weight | 12% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 37.1% | 36 | 89 | limited sample |
| FB | 32.0% | 31 | 101 | limited sample |
| FC | 30.9% | 30 | 98 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 33.6 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 157 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.3% | 13.0% to 28.6% | +/- 7.8% |
| BB% | 10.3% | 5.9% to 15.9% | +/- 5.0% |
| Whiff% | 22.3% | 15.1% to 27.0% | +/- 5.9% |
| HR/9 | 1.12 | 0.39 to 2.25 | +/- 0.93 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.320 | 0.247 to 0.365 | +/- 0.059 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 6.8% | 2.6% to 10.7% | +/- 4.1% |
| ERA | 4.37 | 2.46 to 7.67 | +/- 2.61 |
| FIP | 4.30 | 2.60 to 5.80 | +/- 1.60 |
| WHIP | 1.443 | 1.111 to 1.851 | +/- 0.370 |
105 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.292 |
| K% | 15.0% |
| BB% | 12.6% |
| Barrel | 5.2% |
170 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.280 |
| K% | 15.7% |
| BB% | 9.1% |
| Barrel | 5.7% |