Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Ryan, River

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.8% K%
Range
13.9% to 27.8%
Live Δ
--
Team LAD Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-02
ERA preseason3.39
ERA current pace2.45
ERA rolling p503.33
Observed weight6%
ERA
1.10 2.16 3.33 4.51 5.56
FIP
1.84 2.73 3.73 4.73 5.63
K%
14.6% 17.7% 21.2% 24.7% 27.8%
BB%
4.7% 6.3% 8.0% 9.8% 11.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-02
Insufficient sample

Percentile strips appear after the current-season sample clears the threshold.

Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher.

Stuff+ pending

No current Stuff+ row is available for this pitcher in the latest daily scoring artifact. The profile keeps this block visible so missing coverage is explicit rather than silent.

Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ryan, River · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 42%42%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 33%33%Called strike: 23%23%First pitch strike: 60%60%Hard hit allowed: 22%22% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ryan, River · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 37.5%4-Seam Fastball: 20.8%Changeup: 16.7%Curveball: 12.5%Cutter: 12.5% MIX SL 38%FF 21%CH 17%CU 12%FC 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ryan, River · 2026 arsenal snapshot SL: HB -0.1, IVB 2.7SLFF: HB -0.0, IVB 1.2FFCH: HB -0.3, IVB 2.4CHCU: HB 0.3, IVB 4.1CUFC: HB 0.2, IVB 2.0FC horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.1----
Batters Faced277----
K%21.8%13.9% to 27.8%+/- 6.9%
BB%8.7%5.2% to 12.2%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%21.7%14.7% to 27.6%+/- 6.4%
HR/91.460.12 to 1.93+/- 0.91
xwOBA Against0.3170.217 to 0.361+/- 0.072
Barrel% Allowed9.1%3.6% to 10.8%+/- 3.6%
ERA4.110.34 to 5.07+/- 2.37
FIP4.372.01 to 6.04+/- 2.01
WHIP1.2940.758 to 1.645+/- 0.443
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

39 career BF

xwOBA0.195
K%14.1%
BB%6.9%
Barrel5.1%
vs RHH

43 career BF

xwOBA0.188
K%14.9%
BB%5.6%
Barrel5.0%