Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Joyce, Ben

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
23.1% K%
Range
14.6% to 29.3%
Live Δ
--
Team LAA Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
51
Pitching
percentile
Arsenal3 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.79
ERA current pace2.89
ERA rolling p503.67
Observed weight13%
ERA
1.48 2.52 3.67 4.83 5.87
FIP
1.98 2.59 3.27 3.94 4.55
K%
17.8% 20.8% 24.3% 27.7% 30.8%
BB%
6.8% 8.7% 10.7% 12.8% 14.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Fastball Stuff+108
90
Mithrandir Stuff+103
63
Sinker Stuff+85
1
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 66%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Joyce, Ben · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 42%42%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 41%41%Hard hit allowed: 24%24% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Joyce, Ben · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 65.8%Sinker: 26.8%Slider: 7.4% FF66% · 101 mphprimary pitch FF 66%SI 27%SL 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Joyce, Ben · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 66% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 101.1 mphFF101 mphSinker: 27% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 95.2 mphSI95 mphSlider: 7% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 87.3 mphSL87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 65.2% 45 108 limited sample
SI 30.4% 21 85 limited sample
SL 4.3% 3 114 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Sinker 46%, Slider 3%.
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.5----
Batters Faced137----
K%23.1%14.6% to 29.3%+/- 7.4%
BB%10.3%6.1% to 14.8%+/- 4.4%
Whiff%24.8%20.3% to 33.9%+/- 6.8%
HR/90.980.12 to 1.60+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3080.228 to 0.356+/- 0.064
Barrel% Allowed7.3%3.4% to 11.0%+/- 3.8%
ERA3.981.18 to 6.19+/- 2.51
FIP3.852.29 to 5.23+/- 1.47
WHIP1.2920.975 to 1.681+/- 0.353
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

117 career BF

xwOBA0.264
K%17.7%
BB%10.7%
Barrel6.3%
vs RHH

130 career BF

xwOBA0.261
K%18.8%
BB%7.8%
Barrel6.4%