Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

Dobbins, Hunter

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.7% K%
Range
13.4% to 23.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
50
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal5 metrics
38
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-03
ERA preseason4.38
ERA current pace3.67
ERA rolling p504.03
Observed weight49%
ERA
2.96 3.47 4.03 4.60 5.11
FIP
3.20 3.65 4.14 4.64 5.09
K%
17.6% 19.1% 20.7% 22.4% 23.9%
BB%
6.9% 7.8% 8.7% 9.7% 10.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.35
46
ERA3.67
61
BB%10.3%
33 -41 vs proj
K%22.4%
52 +27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.307
60 +16 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.2%
54
Fastball velo94.6
52
Hard-hit allowed39.2%
44
Whiff%20.7%
32
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-03
Mithrandir Stuff+101
42
Curveball Stuff+100
18
Fastball Stuff+102
46
Sinker Stuff+99
26
Slider Stuff+103
60
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Dobbins, Hunter · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.307 2026-08-23: 0.3002026-08-24: 0.3002026-08-25: 0.3062026-08-26: 0.3062026-08-27: 0.3062026-08-28: 0.3072026-08-29: 0.3072026-08-30: 0.3072026-08-31: 0.3072026-09-01: 0.3072026-09-02: 0.3072026-09-03: 0.307 2026-08-23 2026-09-03 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Dobbins, Hunter · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Dobbins, Hunter · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 32.2%Slider: 17.0%Sweeper: 14.7%Sinker: 13.1%Split-Finger: 11.7%Curveball: 11.4% FF32% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 32%SL 17%ST 15%SI 13%FS 12%CU 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Dobbins, Hunter · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 32% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.6 mphFF95 mphSlider: 17% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.6 mphSL88 mphSweeper: 15% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 82.0 mphST82 mphSinker: 13% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 94.4 mphSI94 mphSplit-Finger: 12% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 88.0 mphFS88 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 79.3 mphCU79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 35.4% 177 102 limited sample
SL 34.4% 172 103 limited sample
SI 16.0% 80 99 limited sample
CB 14.2% 71 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 40%, Slider 27%, Curveball 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.91
K% Δ+0.038
Sample54.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings70.0----
Batters Faced301----
K%18.7%13.4% to 23.8%+/- 5.2%
BB%7.2%4.2% to 9.6%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%21.6%15.9% to 24.6%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.410.60 to 2.03+/- 0.72
xwOBA Against0.3170.257 to 0.354+/- 0.049
Barrel% Allowed7.5%4.2% to 10.1%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.572.83 to 5.87+/- 1.52
FIP4.372.82 to 5.48+/- 1.33
WHIP1.3280.954 to 1.516+/- 0.281
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

124 career BF

xwOBA0.235
K%13.1%
BB%5.5%
Barrel5.3%
vs RHH

132 career BF

xwOBA0.227
K%14.5%
BB%4.5%
Barrel5.1%