Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

Dobbins, Hunter

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.7% K%
Range
13.4% to 23.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
39
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
34
Arsenal5 metrics
70
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.38
ERA current pace4.03
ERA rolling p504.28
Observed weight28%
ERA
3.11 3.67 4.28 4.90 5.45
FIP
3.04 3.53 4.07 4.61 5.09
K%
16.5% 18.4% 20.5% 22.7% 24.6%
BB%
5.9% 7.0% 8.1% 9.3% 10.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.39
38
ERA4.03
50
BB%10.5%
29 -44 vs proj
K%24.2%
62 +38 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.346
19 -27 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.3%
9 -44 vs proj
Fastball velo95.5
67
Hard-hit allowed48.4%
4
Whiff%20.5%
29
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Curveball Stuff+103
71
Fastball Stuff+103
53
Mithrandir Stuff+104
71
Sinker Stuff+105
78
Slider Stuff+105
74
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

10 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Dobbins, Hunter · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.346 2026-07-09: 0.3462026-07-10: 0.3462026-07-11: 0.3462026-07-12: 0.3462026-07-13: 0.3462026-07-14: 0.3462026-07-15: 0.3462026-07-16: 0.3462026-07-17: 0.3462026-07-18: 0.346 2026-07-09 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Dobbins, Hunter · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 48%48% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Dobbins, Hunter · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 34.9%Slider: 19.6%Sinker: 13.1%Sweeper: 12.6%Split-Finger: 11.3%Curveball: 8.5% FF35% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 35%SL 20%SI 13%ST 13%FS 11%CU 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Dobbins, Hunter · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 35% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.5 mphFF95 mphSlider: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.6 mphSL89 mphSinker: 13% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 95.4 mphSI95 mphSweeper: 13% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 82.5 mphST83 mphSplit-Finger: 11% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.2 mphFS89 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 80.0 mphCU80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 37.1% 72 103 limited sample
SL 35.6% 69 105 limited sample
SI 15.5% 30 105 limited sample
CB 11.9% 23 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 40%, Slider 27%, Curveball 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.54
K% Δ+0.055
Sample22.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.9----
Batters Faced296----
K%18.7%13.4% to 23.8%+/- 5.2%
BB%7.2%4.2% to 9.6%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%21.6%15.9% to 24.6%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.410.60 to 2.03+/- 0.72
xwOBA Against0.3170.257 to 0.354+/- 0.049
Barrel% Allowed7.5%4.2% to 10.1%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.572.83 to 5.87+/- 1.52
FIP4.372.82 to 5.48+/- 1.33
WHIP1.3280.954 to 1.516+/- 0.281
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

124 career BF

xwOBA0.235
K%13.1%
BB%5.5%
Barrel5.3%
vs RHH

132 career BF

xwOBA0.227
K%14.5%
BB%4.5%
Barrel5.1%