Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Harrison, Kyle

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.8% K%
Range
19.2% to 30.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Balanced reliever Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
85
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
73
Arsenal5 metrics
67
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
ERA preseason4.19
ERA current pace2.84
ERA rolling p503.30
Observed weight66%
ERA
1.92 2.58 3.30 4.03 4.69
FIP
2.77 3.17 3.61 4.06 4.46
K%
25.2% 26.5% 27.9% 29.3% 30.6%
BB%
5.5% 6.1% 6.7% 7.4% 8.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.16
78
ERA2.84
83
BB%6.1%
88 +29 vs proj
K%29.5%
92 +23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.280
84 +42 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.0%
43 +18 vs proj
Fastball velo94.8
54
Hard-hit allowed37.8%
55
Whiff%26.8%
80 +21 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-08-31
Fastball Stuff+108
87
Mithrandir Stuff+106
83
Slider Stuff+101
43
Changeup Stuff+99
31
Sinker Stuff+107
91
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 57%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Harrison, Kyle · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.280 2026-08-20: 0.2812026-08-21: 0.2812026-08-22: 0.2812026-08-23: 0.2812026-08-24: 0.2812026-08-25: 0.2762026-08-26: 0.2762026-08-27: 0.2802026-08-28: 0.2802026-08-29: 0.2802026-08-30: 0.2802026-08-31: 0.280 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Harrison, Kyle · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Harrison, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 57.2%Slurve: 30.5%Changeup: 9.2%Sinker: 3.1% FF57% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 57%SV 31%CH 9%SI 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Harrison, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 57% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.8 mphFF95 mphSlurve: 31% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 82.0 mphSV82 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mphSinker: 3% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 94.2 mphSI94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 57.6% 648 108 qualified
SL 30.0% 337 101 qualified
CH 10.3% 116 99 limited sample
SI 2.1% 24 107 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.296 vs 0.327 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 59%, Slurve 27%, Changeup 8%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.14
K% Δ+0.046
Sample109.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings71.3----
Batters Faced317----
K%24.8%19.2% to 30.8%+/- 5.8%
BB%8.1%5.9% to 10.8%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%23.9%20.2% to 29.5%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.340.98 to 2.42+/- 0.72
xwOBA Against0.3180.286 to 0.368+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed9.1%6.6% to 13.7%+/- 3.5%
ERA3.982.59 to 6.33+/- 1.87
FIP3.642.73 to 5.01+/- 1.14
WHIP1.2621.028 to 1.611+/- 0.291
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

217 career BF

xwOBA0.296
K%23.8%
BB%6.5%
Barrel9.7%
vs RHH

679 career BF

xwOBA0.327
K%22.9%
BB%8.2%
Barrel11.0%