Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

McLean, Nolan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.2% K%
Range
24.4% to 35.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Balanced reliever Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
70
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
67
Arsenal7 metrics
70
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
ERA preseason3.48
ERA current pace3.21
ERA rolling p503.28
Observed weight73%
ERA
2.00 2.61 3.28 3.96 4.57
FIP
2.41 2.93 3.51 4.08 4.60
K%
24.9% 25.9% 27.1% 28.3% 29.4%
BB%
7.8% 8.4% 9.1% 9.8% 10.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.15
79
ERA3.21
76
BB%9.4%
43
K%26.6%
80
xwOBA allowed0.293
73 +23 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.3%
67 +38 vs proj
Fastball velo95.4
66
Hard-hit allowed35.7%
70
Whiff%22.2%
45 -17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-08-31
Curveball Stuff+103
62
Fastball Stuff+106
75
Mithrandir Stuff+106
84
Sinker Stuff+105
78
Slider Stuff+102
52
Changeup Stuff+103
62
Cutter Stuff+104
76
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed McLean, Nolan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.293 2026-08-20: 0.2982026-08-21: 0.2982026-08-22: 0.2982026-08-23: 0.2982026-08-24: 0.2982026-08-25: 0.2962026-08-26: 0.2962026-08-27: 0.2962026-08-28: 0.2962026-08-29: 0.2962026-08-30: 0.2932026-08-31: 0.293 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile McLean, Nolan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McLean, Nolan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 33.3%4-Seam Fastball: 20.2%Curveball: 14.3%Sweeper: 12.8%Cutter: 10.5%Changeup: 5.9% SI33% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 33%FF 20%CU 14%ST 13%FC 11%CH 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McLean, Nolan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Sinker: 33% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 95.0 mphSI95 mph4-Seam Fastball: 20% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 96.1 mphFF96 mphCurveball: 14% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 82.0 mphCU82 mphSweeper: 13% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 84.9 mphST85 mphCutter: 11% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 92.1 mphFC92 mphChangeup: 6% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 88.1 mphCH88 mphSlider: 3% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.3 mphSL86 mphSlow Curve: 0% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 64″ drop, 74.8 mphCS75 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 35.9% 600 105 qualified
FB 17.8% 298 106 qualified
SL 16.4% 275 102 qualified
CB 12.6% 211 103 qualified
FC 11.1% 186 104 limited sample
CH 6.2% 103 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 28%, Sweeper 26%, Curveball 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.08
K% Δ+0.013
Sample152.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings69.3----
Batters Faced283----
K%25.2%24.4% to 35.8%+/- 5.7%
BB%8.8%5.7% to 11.5%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%24.4%21.5% to 30.2%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.300.73 to 1.85+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.3130.276 to 0.349+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed8.8%6.3% to 13.2%+/- 3.4%
ERA3.281.73 to 5.02+/- 1.65
FIP3.622.41 to 5.25+/- 1.42
WHIP1.2150.914 to 1.530+/- 0.308
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

104 career BF

xwOBA0.261
K%26.7%
BB%8.6%
Barrel8.3%
vs RHH

84 career BF

xwOBA0.257
K%26.3%
BB%5.9%
Barrel9.9%