Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Pérez, Eury

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
23.7% K%
Range
21.2% to 32.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 23 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
61
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
60
Arsenal6 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.10
ERA current pace3.78
ERA rolling p503.90
Observed weight62%
ERA
2.59 3.22 3.90 4.59 5.21
FIP
3.06 3.47 3.92 4.37 4.78
K%
24.1% 25.4% 26.9% 28.4% 29.8%
BB%
7.3% 7.9% 8.7% 9.5% 10.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.11
81
ERA3.78
56
BB%9.4%
41 -30 vs proj
K%27.3%
80 +22 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.316
48
Barrel allowed11.5%
8 -35 vs proj
Fastball velo98.0
94
Hard-hit allowed38.7%
51
Whiff%27.0%
79
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+109
90
Mithrandir Stuff+105
73
Slider Stuff+102
51
Changeup Stuff+99
29
Curveball Stuff+102
52
Sinker Stuff+88
2
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Pérez, Eury · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.316 2026-07-07: 0.3162026-07-08: 0.3162026-07-09: 0.3162026-07-10: 0.3162026-07-11: 0.3162026-07-12: 0.3162026-07-13: 0.3162026-07-14: 0.3162026-07-15: 0.3162026-07-16: 0.3162026-07-17: 0.3162026-07-18: 0.316 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Pérez, Eury · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 12%12%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pérez, Eury · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.4%Slider: 15.1%Sweeper: 14.5%Changeup: 10.3%Sinker: 9.5%Curveball: 6.2% FF44% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 44%SL 15%ST 14%CH 10%SI 9%CU 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pérez, Eury · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 98.1 mphFF98 mphSlider: 15% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 87.7 mphSL88 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 83.4 mphST83 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.7 mphCH90 mphSinker: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 97.5 mphSI97 mphCurveball: 6% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 80.8 mphCU81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 47.2% 575 109 qualified
SL 30.2% 368 102 qualified
CH 9.9% 120 99 limited sample
SI 6.9% 84 88 limited sample
CB 5.8% 70 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 51%, Slider 22%, Curveball 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.31
K% Δ+0.037
Sample93.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings141.0----
Batters Faced589----
K%23.7%21.2% to 32.7%+/- 5.7%
BB%7.4%5.7% to 10.1%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%26.1%22.4% to 31.8%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.210.92 to 1.96+/- 0.52
xwOBA Against0.3050.257 to 0.333+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed8.1%4.6% to 12.8%+/- 4.1%
ERA4.092.96 to 6.57+/- 1.81
FIP3.742.75 to 5.11+/- 1.18
WHIP1.1310.920 to 1.464+/- 0.272
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

410 career BF

xwOBA0.258
K%24.3%
BB%7.7%
Barrel9.9%
vs RHH

367 career BF

xwOBA0.253
K%23.8%
BB%5.8%
Barrel9.1%