Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Aldegheri, Sam

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.4% K%
Range
11.5% to 24.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Volatile contact Age 25 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
19
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
26
Arsenal5 metrics
24
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-19
ERA preseason4.19
ERA current pace5.08
ERA rolling p504.53
Observed weight39%
ERA
2.94 3.70 4.53 5.37 6.12
FIP
4.18 4.48 4.81 5.14 5.43
K%
12.3% 14.3% 16.6% 18.9% 20.9%
BB%
7.5% 8.7% 9.9% 11.1% 12.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.44
29
ERA5.08
23
BB%11.2%
23 -17 vs proj
K%14.5%
6 -23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.355
12 -17 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.0%
31
Fastball velo92.1
17
Hard-hit allowed35.1%
75
Whiff%19.0%
18
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-19
Changeup Stuff+103
56
Curveball Stuff+101
35
Fastball Stuff+94
11
Mithrandir Stuff+95
13
Slider Stuff+93
6
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 47%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Aldegheri, Sam · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.355 2026-07-08: 0.3552026-07-09: 0.3552026-07-10: 0.3552026-07-11: 0.3552026-07-12: 0.3552026-07-13: 0.3552026-07-14: 0.3552026-07-15: 0.3552026-07-16: 0.3552026-07-17: 0.3552026-07-18: 0.3552026-07-19: 0.355 2026-07-08 2026-07-19 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Aldegheri, Sam · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Aldegheri, Sam · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 47.2%Changeup: 31.0%Cutter: 9.7%Curveball: 7.5%Slider: 4.6% FF47% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 47%CH 31%FC 10%CU 8%SL 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Aldegheri, Sam · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 47% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 92.1 mphFF92 mphChangeup: 31% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 80.2 mphCH80 mphCutter: 10% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.6 mphFC87 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 74.8 mphCU75 mphSlider: 5% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 81.6 mphSL82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 45.6% 88 94 limited sample
CH 28.5% 55 103 limited sample
SL 14.0% 27 93 limited sample
CB 11.9% 23 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.243 vs 0.264 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Changeup 24%, Slider 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.46
K% Δ-0.049
Sample33.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings59.0----
Batters Faced302----
K%19.4%11.5% to 24.7%+/- 6.6%
BB%9.4%7.0% to 13.6%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%20.7%14.3% to 25.7%+/- 5.7%
HR/91.440.74 to 2.05+/- 0.66
xwOBA Against0.3350.267 to 0.369+/- 0.051
Barrel% Allowed8.2%4.7% to 10.8%+/- 3.0%
ERA4.621.93 to 6.32+/- 2.19
FIP4.473.30 to 5.03+/- 0.87
WHIP1.4101.187 to 1.831+/- 0.322
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

35 career BF

xwOBA0.243
K%13.8%
BB%10.3%
Barrel5.1%
vs RHH

105 career BF

xwOBA0.264
K%12.6%
BB%9.6%
Barrel6.8%