Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 42%, 4-Seam Fastball 22%, Slider 21%.
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026
Seymour, Carson
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team SF
Archetype Volatile contact
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
22
Pitching
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.92 |
| ERA current pace | 4.96 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.22 |
| Observed weight | 29% |
ERA
2.72
3.43
4.22
5.00
5.71
FIP
3.58
4.16
4.82
5.47
6.06
K%
13.4%
15.8%
18.4%
21.1%
23.5%
BB%
6.7%
7.8%
9.1%
10.4%
11.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.43
31
ERA4.96
27
BB%11.5%
22
-30 vs proj
K%18.8%
27
xwOBA allowed0.373
6
Barrel allowed7.7%
47
+24 vs proj
Fastball velo96.5
80
Hard-hit allowed33.8%
83
Whiff%18.7%
17
-29 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Cutter Stuff+95
6
Fastball Stuff+100
33
Mithrandir Stuff+99
22
Sinker Stuff+99
29
Slider Stuff+94
8
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
7Pitches
2026Season
28%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 31.9% | 79 | 99 | limited sample |
| SL | 24.6% | 61 | 94 | limited sample |
| FC | 21.8% | 54 | 95 | limited sample |
| FB | 21.4% | 53 | 100 | limited sample |
| CB | 0.4% | 1 | 71 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.21 |
| K% Δ | -0.008 |
| Sample | 21.7 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 68.1 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 294 | -- | -- |
| K% | 19.6% | 12.9% to 26.4% | +/- 6.7% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 5.5% to 11.4% | +/- 2.9% |
| Whiff% | 22.3% | 17.3% to 28.0% | +/- 5.4% |
| HR/9 | 1.48 | 0.82 to 2.40 | +/- 0.79 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.347 | 0.284 to 0.377 | +/- 0.046 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 9.2% | 5.9% to 16.1% | +/- 5.1% |
| ERA | 4.75 | 2.67 to 6.55 | +/- 1.94 |
| FIP | 4.72 | 3.68 to 6.91 | +/- 1.61 |
| WHIP | 1.343 | 1.049 to 1.722 | +/- 0.337 |
vs LHH
76 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.307 |
| K% | 13.3% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 13.5% |
vs RHH
80 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.287 |
| K% | 15.0% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 11.8% |