Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 54%, Cutter 19%, Curveball 14%.
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026
Schlittler, Cam
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team NYY
Archetype Balanced starter
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.96 |
| ERA current pace | 1.50 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 2.61 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
ERA
1.56
2.06
2.61
3.17
3.67
FIP
2.22
2.55
2.90
3.26
3.58
K%
23.6%
25.0%
26.6%
28.2%
29.7%
BB%
4.9%
5.5%
6.3%
7.0%
7.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%4.8%
95
+36 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.2%
71
+19 vs proj
Fastball velo97.6
93
Hard-hit allowed39.9%
46
K%28.4%
85
+32 vs proj
Whiff%25.3%
66
+34 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.255
91
+44 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+110
97
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
7Pitches
2026Season
44%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 44.1% | 459 | 110 | qualified |
| FC | 28.3% | 295 | 105 | qualified |
| SI | 18.7% | 195 | 106 | limited sample |
| CB | 6.4% | 67 | 106 | limited sample |
| SL | 2.4% | 25 | 96 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -2.65 |
| K% Δ | +0.057 |
| Sample | 75.3 IP |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 141.0 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 596 | -- | -- |
| K% | 22.7% | 20.4% to 31.1% | +/- 5.4% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 6.1% to 10.9% | +/- 2.4% |
| Whiff% | 20.9% | 17.5% to 26.0% | +/- 4.2% |
| HR/9 | 1.25 | 0.60 to 1.83 | +/- 0.62 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.316 | 0.286 to 0.338 | +/- 0.026 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.6% | 4.6% to 10.5% | +/- 2.9% |
| ERA | 4.15 | 2.17 to 5.14 | +/- 1.48 |
| FIP | 3.77 | 2.48 to 4.39 | +/- 0.96 |
| WHIP | 1.214 | 0.966 to 1.495 | +/- 0.265 |
vs LHH
223 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.258 |
| K% | 22.1% |
| BB% | 8.4% |
| Barrel | 5.4% |
vs RHH
173 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.261 |
| K% | 21.1% |
| BB% | 6.2% |
| Barrel | 6.6% |