Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Seymour, Ian

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.1% K%
Range
20.6% to 30.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
62
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal6 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.87
ERA current pace4.59
ERA rolling p504.72
Observed weight54%
ERA
3.57 4.11 4.72 5.32 5.87
FIP
3.14 3.52 3.95 4.38 4.76
K%
23.4% 24.7% 26.2% 27.7% 29.0%
BB%
6.5% 7.3% 8.2% 9.1% 9.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.15
74
ERA4.59
34
BB%8.8%
48 -16 vs proj
K%27.5%
81 +26 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.291
71
Barrel allowed8.0%
45
Fastball velo91.2
8
Hard-hit allowed35.2%
75
Whiff%26.6%
76 +23 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Mithrandir Stuff+102
52
Changeup Stuff+104
62
Cutter Stuff+101
46
Fastball Stuff+101
38
Sinker Stuff+102
48
Slider Stuff+104
65
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Seymour, Ian · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.291 2026-07-06: 0.2852026-07-07: 0.2852026-07-08: 0.2852026-07-09: 0.2802026-07-10: 0.2802026-07-11: 0.2802026-07-12: 0.2802026-07-13: 0.2802026-07-14: 0.2912026-07-15: 0.2912026-07-16: 0.2912026-07-17: 0.291 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Seymour, Ian · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Seymour, Ian · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 31.0%4-Seam Fastball: 24.8%Sweeper: 24.0%Sinker: 13.7%Slider: 3.4%Cutter: 1.9% CH31% · 84 mphprimary pitch CH 31%FF 25%ST 24%SI 14%SL 3%FC 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Seymour, Ian · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Changeup: 31% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 83.6 mphCH84 mph4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 91.7 mphFF92 mphSweeper: 24% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 81.3 mphST81 mphSinker: 14% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 90.3 mphSI90 mphSlider: 3% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 82.7 mphSL83 mphCutter: 2% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 87.2 mphFC87 mphCurveball: 1% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 64″ drop, 72.8 mphCU73 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 33.6% 174 104 limited sample
SL 24.9% 129 104 limited sample
FB 20.8% 108 101 limited sample
SI 17.6% 91 102 limited sample
FC 2.3% 12 101 limited sample
CB 0.8% 4 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.255 vs 0.292 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 32%, Changeup 32%, Cutter 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.60
K% Δ+0.043
Sample67.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.8----
Batters Faced285----
K%23.1%20.6% to 30.1%+/- 4.7%
BB%7.8%5.9% to 11.3%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%23.2%20.5% to 28.4%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.160.69 to 1.65+/- 0.48
xwOBA Against0.3060.289 to 0.355+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed7.7%5.6% to 10.7%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.992.80 to 6.04+/- 1.62
FIP3.732.78 to 5.07+/- 1.15
WHIP1.2770.995 to 1.586+/- 0.296
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

79 career BF

xwOBA0.255
K%24.1%
BB%6.7%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

163 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%22.1%
BB%7.5%
Barrel7.6%