Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Seymour, Ian

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.1% K%
Range
20.6% to 30.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
75
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
62
Arsenal6 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-02
ERA preseason4.87
ERA current pace4.17
ERA rolling p504.40
Observed weight67%
ERA
3.19 3.76 4.40 5.04 5.61
FIP
3.05 3.45 3.90 4.35 4.76
K%
25.3% 26.4% 27.6% 28.9% 30.0%
BB%
5.7% 6.3% 7.0% 7.7% 8.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.14
81
ERA4.17
46
BB%6.8%
79
K%29.1%
90 +32 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.288
77 +18 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.2%
24 -22 vs proj
Fastball velo90.9
6
Hard-hit allowed35.1%
75
Whiff%26.2%
77 +23 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-02
Changeup Stuff+103
60
Mithrandir Stuff+102
49
Cutter Stuff+101
44
Fastball Stuff+99
29
Sinker Stuff+102
55
Slider Stuff+105
77
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Seymour, Ian · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.288 2026-08-22: 0.2972026-08-23: 0.2972026-08-24: 0.2972026-08-25: 0.2982026-08-26: 0.2982026-08-27: 0.2942026-08-28: 0.2942026-08-29: 0.2942026-08-30: 0.2942026-08-31: 0.2942026-09-01: 0.2882026-09-02: 0.288 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Seymour, Ian · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Seymour, Ian · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 29.6%4-Seam Fastball: 27.5%Sweeper: 20.4%Sinker: 14.8%Slider: 5.8%Cutter: 1.1% CH30% · 83 mphprimary pitch CH 30%FF 28%ST 20%SI 15%SL 6%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Seymour, Ian · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Changeup: 30% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 83.4 mphCH83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 91.4 mphFF91 mphSweeper: 20% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 81.6 mphST82 mphSinker: 15% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.0 mphSI90 mphSlider: 6% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 83.2 mphSL83 mphCutter: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 87.2 mphFC87 mphCurveball: 1% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 65″ drop, 72.7 mphCU73 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 31.6% 221 103 qualified
SL 25.0% 175 105 limited sample
FB 22.6% 158 99 limited sample
SI 18.5% 129 102 limited sample
FC 1.7% 12 101 limited sample
CB 0.6% 4 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.255 vs 0.292 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 32%, Changeup 32%, Cutter 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.18
K% Δ+0.058
Sample116.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.0----
Batters Faced286----
K%23.1%20.6% to 30.1%+/- 4.7%
BB%7.8%5.9% to 11.3%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%23.2%20.5% to 28.4%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.160.69 to 1.65+/- 0.48
xwOBA Against0.3060.289 to 0.355+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed7.7%5.6% to 10.7%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.992.80 to 6.04+/- 1.62
FIP3.732.78 to 5.07+/- 1.15
WHIP1.2760.995 to 1.586+/- 0.296
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

79 career BF

xwOBA0.255
K%24.1%
BB%6.7%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

163 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%22.1%
BB%7.5%
Barrel7.6%