Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Palencia, Daniel

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.8% K%
Range
21.0% to 34.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Balanced reliever Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
52
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
66
Arsenal3 metrics
66
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.60
ERA current pace5.14
ERA rolling p504.04
Observed weight28%
ERA
2.46 3.21 4.04 4.86 5.61
FIP
2.98 3.34 3.74 4.14 4.49
K%
21.1% 23.6% 26.3% 29.0% 31.5%
BB%
5.2% 6.7% 8.2% 9.8% 11.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.45
29
ERA5.14
24
BB%7.4%
72 +19 vs proj
K%26.3%
80
xwOBA allowed0.308
57
Barrel allowed6.5%
67
Fastball velo99.3
99
Hard-hit allowed32.3%
90
Whiff%27.0%
80
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Fastball Stuff+107
85
Mithrandir Stuff+106
88
Slider Stuff+98
26
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 67%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

4 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Palencia, Daniel · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.308 2026-09-02: 0.3052026-09-03: 0.3082026-09-04: 0.3082026-09-05: 0.308 2026-09-02 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Palencia, Daniel · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Palencia, Daniel · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 66.7%Slider: 25.2%Split-Finger: 6.0%Sinker: 2.2% FF67% · 99 mphprimary pitch FF 67%SL 25%FS 6%SI 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Palencia, Daniel · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 67% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 99.3 mphFF99 mphSlider: 25% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 90.3 mphSL90 mphSplit-Finger: 6% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.5 mphFS90 mphSinker: 2% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 99.7 mphSI100 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 74.1% 169 107 limited sample
SL 23.2% 53 98 limited sample
SI 2.6% 6 112 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 71%, Slider 24%, Split-Finger 4%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.71
K% Δ+0.005
Sample21.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings35.9----
Batters Faced153----
K%25.8%21.0% to 34.7%+/- 6.8%
BB%8.7%5.8% to 13.7%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%26.8%20.9% to 31.9%+/- 5.5%
HR/90.950.53 to 1.91+/- 0.69
xwOBA Against0.3070.242 to 0.339+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed6.2%3.1% to 10.0%+/- 3.4%
ERA3.392.11 to 6.20+/- 2.04
FIP3.342.66 to 4.62+/- 0.98
WHIP1.2021.015 to 1.623+/- 0.304
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

200 career BF

xwOBA0.293
K%25.1%
BB%10.3%
Barrel5.7%
vs RHH

252 career BF

xwOBA0.274
K%24.5%
BB%6.5%
Barrel5.0%