Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Pfaadt, Brandon

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.5% K%
Range
17.9% to 27.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.55
ERA current pace5.60
ERA rolling p505.00
Observed weight43%
ERA
3.94 4.44 5.00 5.55 6.05
FIP
3.78 4.05 4.35 4.66 4.93
K%
17.8% 19.4% 21.1% 22.9% 24.4%
BB%
5.1% 5.8% 6.7% 7.5% 8.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.4%
55 -31 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.4%
22 -17 vs proj
Fastball velo93.4
33
Hard-hit allowed40.0%
46
K%20.2%
34
Whiff%23.2%
51
xwOBA allowed0.347
21 -16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+102
53
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 22%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Pfaadt, Brandon · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3352026-05-19: 0.3432026-05-21: 0.3432026-05-23: 0.3442026-05-24: 0.3442026-05-25: 0.3442026-05-26: 0.3442026-05-28: 0.3442026-05-29: 0.3442026-05-30: 0.3442026-05-31: 0.3472026-06-01: 0.347 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Pfaadt, Brandon · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pfaadt, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 22.2%Curveball: 20.4%4-Seam Fastball: 17.8%Sweeper: 14.8%Cutter: 13.9%Changeup: 10.9% MIX SI 22%CU 20%FF 18%ST 15%FC 14%CH 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pfaadt, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.6, IVB 2.0SICU: HB 0.4, IVB 4.3CUFF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.4FFST: HB -0.9, IVB 2.9STFC: HB -0.0, IVB 2.1FCCH: HB -0.9, IVB 2.7CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 21.5% 120 101 limited sample
CB 21.1% 118 100 limited sample
FB 18.2% 102 107 limited sample
SL 15.0% 84 97 limited sample
FC 14.0% 78 105 limited sample
CH 10.2% 57 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.325 vs 0.299 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 24%, Sinker 23%, Sweeper 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.87
K% Δ-0.013
Sample42.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings146.2----
Batters Faced633----
K%21.5%17.9% to 27.9%+/- 5.0%
BB%6.0%3.8% to 7.8%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%22.0%19.0% to 26.7%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.510.91 to 1.99+/- 0.54
xwOBA Against0.3300.284 to 0.361+/- 0.039
Barrel% Allowed8.6%5.6% to 12.7%+/- 3.6%
ERA4.733.61 to 6.57+/- 1.48
FIP4.142.96 to 4.57+/- 0.80
WHIP1.2351.077 to 1.547+/- 0.235
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1080 career BF

xwOBA0.325
K%19.3%
BB%5.5%
Barrel10.5%
vs RHH

1037 career BF

xwOBA0.299
K%23.3%
BB%4.6%
Barrel9.0%