Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Gibson, Trey

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.6% K%
Range
1.9% to 21.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Volatile contact Age 24 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
6
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
18
Arsenal6 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.44
ERA current pace7.36
ERA rolling p505.62
Observed weight40%
ERA
3.73 4.63 5.62 6.61 7.50
FIP
3.17 4.12 5.18 6.25 7.20
K%
11.7% 14.6% 17.8% 20.9% 23.8%
BB%
8.1% 9.6% 11.3% 12.9% 14.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.93
1
ERA7.36
3
BB%15.4%
3 -42 vs proj
K%18.5%
23 -22 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.391
2 -76 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.6%
23 -37 vs proj
Fastball velo94.9
58
Hard-hit allowed48.1%
4
Whiff%22.0%
41
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Curveball Stuff+106
97
Cutter Stuff+107
95
Fastball Stuff+94
10
Mithrandir Stuff+100
36
Sinker Stuff+93
7
Slider Stuff+101
42
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 25%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gibson, Trey · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.391 2026-07-07: 0.3912026-07-08: 0.3912026-07-09: 0.3912026-07-10: 0.3912026-07-11: 0.3912026-07-12: 0.3912026-07-13: 0.3912026-07-14: 0.3912026-07-15: 0.3912026-07-16: 0.3912026-07-17: 0.3912026-07-18: 0.391 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gibson, Trey · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 48%48% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gibson, Trey · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 25.4%Slider: 21.0%Cutter: 19.2%4-Seam Fastball: 19.2%Curveball: 13.2%Sweeper: 1.9% SI25% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 25%SL 21%FC 19%FF 19%CU 13%ST 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gibson, Trey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 25% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 94.6 mphSI95 mphSlider: 21% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 87.8 mphSL88 mphCutter: 19% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 91.9 mphFC92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 19% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 95.4 mphFF95 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 84.3 mphCU84 mphSweeper: 2% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 84.8 mphST85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 24.1% 87 93 limited sample
SL 21.1% 76 101 limited sample
FB 20.5% 74 94 limited sample
FC 19.1% 69 107 limited sample
CB 15.2% 55 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.83
K% Δ-0.031
Sample32.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.3----
Batters Faced150----
K%21.6%1.9% to 21.3%+/- 9.7%
BB%8.9%0.8% to 10.3%+/- 4.7%
Whiff%22.6%2.3% to 26.7%+/- 12.2%
HR/91.100.00 to 1.22+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.2840.010 to 0.319+/- 0.155
Barrel% Allowed7.0%0.1% to 9.0%+/- 4.4%
ERA4.532.37 to 7.60+/- 2.62
FIP3.970.64 to 6.24+/- 2.80
WHIP1.3200.516 to 1.754+/- 0.619
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

3 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%1.5%
BB%3.2%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

6 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%1.6%
BB%2.4%
Barrel0.1%