Breaking-ball driven starter profile
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.92 |
| ERA current pace | 3.30 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.60 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 36.5% | 377 | 101 | qualified |
| CB | 28.8% | 297 | 105 | qualified |
| CH | 19.1% | 197 | 102 | limited sample |
| FC | 13.1% | 135 | 102 | limited sample |
| FB | 2.5% | 26 | 87 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
| ERA Δ | -0.90 |
| K% Δ | +0.063 |
| Sample | 63.7 IP |
positive regression
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 138.9 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 617 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.0% | 17.4% to 26.5% | +/- 4.5% |
| BB% | 9.3% | 7.2% to 12.1% | +/- 2.4% |
| Whiff% | 22.1% | 19.8% to 28.2% | +/- 4.2% |
| HR/9 | 1.17 | 0.53 to 1.72 | +/- 0.60 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.316 | 0.272 to 0.339 | +/- 0.033 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.1% | 5.4% to 11.0% | +/- 2.8% |
| ERA | 4.20 | 2.73 to 5.48 | +/- 1.37 |
| FIP | 4.07 | 2.81 to 4.71 | +/- 0.95 |
| WHIP | 1.368 | 1.124 to 1.637 | +/- 0.256 |
| xwOBA | 0.294 |
| K% | 17.6% |
| BB% | 11.1% |
| Barrel | 7.9% |
| xwOBA | 0.271 |
| K% | 21.0% |
| BB% | 7.2% |
| Barrel | 6.6% |
