Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Misiorowski, Jacob

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
28.9% K%
Range
24.0% to 35.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
95
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
94
Arsenal6 metrics
70
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-15
ERA preseason4.03
ERA current pace1.80
ERA rolling p502.36
Observed weight75%
ERA
1.11 1.70 2.36 3.01 3.60
FIP
1.46 1.91 2.42 2.93 3.39
K%
32.5% 33.6% 34.8% 35.9% 37.0%
BB%
6.1% 6.7% 7.3% 7.9% 8.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.85
98
ERA1.80
98
BB%6.9%
79 +26 vs proj
K%36.7%
99
xwOBA allowed0.230
99 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.6%
96 +54 vs proj
Fastball velo100.5
100
Hard-hit allowed35.0%
77
Whiff%33.6%
99 +17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Fastball Stuff+110
96
Mithrandir Stuff+110
98
Slider Stuff+111
97
Changeup Stuff+98
23
Curveball Stuff+101
31
Cutter Stuff+104
76
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 63%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Misiorowski, Jacob · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.230 2026-10-04: 0.2262026-10-05: 0.2262026-10-06: 0.2262026-10-07: 0.2262026-10-08: 0.2262026-10-09: 0.2262026-10-10: 0.2262026-10-11: 0.2262026-10-12: 0.2302026-10-13: 0.2302026-10-14: 0.2302026-10-15: 0.230 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Misiorowski, Jacob · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 34%34%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 57%57%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Misiorowski, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 63.5%Cutter: 13.2%Slider: 11.7%Curveball: 10.3%Changeup: 1.2%Sinker: 0.1% FF63% · 101 mphprimary pitch FF 63%FC 13%SL 12%CU 10%CH 1%SI 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Misiorowski, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 63% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 100.5 mphFF101 mphCutter: 13% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 95.8 mphFC96 mphSlider: 12% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 91.8 mphSL92 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 87.9 mphCU88 mphChangeup: 1% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 92.5 mphCH92 mphSinker: 0% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 100.6 mphSI101 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 62.0% 1150 110 qualified
SL 18.8% 349 111 qualified
CB 10.3% 191 101 limited sample
FC 8.0% 148 104 limited sample
CH 0.9% 16 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 53%, Slider 26%, Curveball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.71
K% Δ+0.078
Sample187.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings69.6----
Batters Faced291----
K%28.9%24.0% to 35.7%+/- 5.9%
BB%8.6%6.3% to 12.1%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%27.2%21.6% to 30.5%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.160.84 to 1.80+/- 0.48
xwOBA Against0.2870.243 to 0.317+/- 0.037
Barrel% Allowed7.8%5.2% to 10.5%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.512.70 to 5.84+/- 1.57
FIP3.452.42 to 4.86+/- 1.22
WHIP1.1860.906 to 1.512+/- 0.303
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

161 career BF

xwOBA0.228
K%28.5%
BB%8.9%
Barrel6.5%
vs RHH

158 career BF

xwOBA0.229
K%24.2%
BB%7.1%
Barrel6.9%