Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Misiorowski, Jacob

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
29.0% K%
Range
24.0% to 35.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
97
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
95
Arsenal6 metrics
70
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
ERA preseason4.03
ERA current pace1.68
ERA rolling p502.36
Observed weight71%
ERA
1.15 1.72 2.36 2.99 3.56
FIP
1.51 1.95 2.45 2.94 3.38
K%
32.8% 34.0% 35.3% 36.6% 37.8%
BB%
5.6% 6.2% 6.9% 7.5% 8.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.77
99
ERA1.68
97
BB%6.2%
87 +34 vs proj
K%37.9%
99
xwOBA allowed0.220
99 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.8%
94 +50 vs proj
Fastball velo100.5
100
Hard-hit allowed34.0%
82
Whiff%34.6%
99 +18 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-08-31
Fastball Stuff+111
96
Mithrandir Stuff+110
98
Slider Stuff+111
96
Changeup Stuff+97
18
Curveball Stuff+100
19
Cutter Stuff+107
93
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 63%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Misiorowski, Jacob · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.220 2026-08-20: 0.2162026-08-21: 0.2162026-08-22: 0.2162026-08-23: 0.2162026-08-24: 0.2162026-08-25: 0.2192026-08-26: 0.2192026-08-27: 0.2192026-08-28: 0.2202026-08-29: 0.2202026-08-30: 0.2202026-08-31: 0.220 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Misiorowski, Jacob · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 35%35%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Misiorowski, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 63.4%Cutter: 13.0%Slider: 11.5%Curveball: 10.6%Changeup: 1.5% FF63% · 100 mphprimary pitch FF 63%FC 13%SL 11%CU 11%CH 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Misiorowski, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 63% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 100.5 mphFF100 mphCutter: 13% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 95.9 mphFC96 mphSlider: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 92.0 mphSL92 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 87.9 mphCU88 mphChangeup: 1% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 92.5 mphCH92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 62.4% 971 111 qualified
SL 20.2% 315 111 qualified
CB 10.3% 161 100 limited sample
FC 6.0% 94 107 limited sample
CH 1.0% 16 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 53%, Slider 26%, Curveball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.83
K% Δ+0.090
Sample155.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings72.2----
Batters Faced302----
K%29.0%24.0% to 35.7%+/- 5.9%
BB%8.6%6.3% to 12.1%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%27.2%21.5% to 30.5%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.160.84 to 1.80+/- 0.48
xwOBA Against0.2870.243 to 0.316+/- 0.037
Barrel% Allowed7.8%5.2% to 10.5%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.512.70 to 5.83+/- 1.57
FIP3.452.42 to 4.85+/- 1.22
WHIP1.1850.906 to 1.515+/- 0.305
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

161 career BF

xwOBA0.228
K%28.5%
BB%8.9%
Barrel6.5%
vs RHH

158 career BF

xwOBA0.229
K%24.2%
BB%7.1%
Barrel6.9%