Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026

Tidwell, Blade

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.2% K%
Range
9.8% to 24.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Volatile contact Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
57
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
52
Arsenal6 metrics
42
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
ERA preseason3.97
ERA current pace3.58
ERA rolling p503.82
Observed weight40%
ERA
2.14 2.93 3.82 4.70 5.49
FIP
3.20 3.66 4.18 4.70 5.17
K%
15.1% 17.3% 19.9% 22.4% 24.7%
BB%
6.7% 7.7% 8.9% 10.1% 11.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.25
64
ERA3.58
63
BB%8.8%
51
K%20.1%
36
xwOBA allowed0.296
69 +28 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.0%
27 -27 vs proj
Fastball velo94.9
56
Hard-hit allowed36.9%
60
Whiff%21.3%
37
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-08-31
Slider Stuff+105
78
Changeup Stuff+90
5
Curveball Stuff+103
56
Fastball Stuff+96
16
Mithrandir Stuff+101
41
Sinker Stuff+102
54
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Tidwell, Blade · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.296 2026-08-20: 0.3062026-08-21: 0.3062026-08-22: 0.3062026-08-23: 0.3062026-08-24: 0.3062026-08-25: 0.2802026-08-26: 0.2802026-08-27: 0.2802026-08-28: 0.2802026-08-29: 0.2802026-08-30: 0.2962026-08-31: 0.296 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Tidwell, Blade · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Tidwell, Blade · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 36.1%4-Seam Fastball: 31.1%Sinker: 14.2%Slider: 9.6%Changeup: 5.1%Curveball: 3.7% ST36% · 83 mphprimary pitch ST 36%FF 31%SI 14%SL 10%CH 5%CU 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Tidwell, Blade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sweeper: 36% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 82.6 mphST83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 31% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 95.5 mphFF96 mphSinker: 14% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.5 mphSI94 mphSlider: 10% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.3 mphSL88 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 83.2 mphCH83 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 83.7 mphCU84 mphCutter: 0% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 92.3 mphFC92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 46.1% 202 105 qualified
FB 33.6% 147 96 limited sample
SI 11.9% 52 102 limited sample
CH 5.7% 25 90 limited sample
CB 2.7% 12 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 39%, Sweeper 22%, Sinker 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.20
K% Δ-0.001
Sample38.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.8----
Batters Faced322----
K%20.2%9.8% to 24.7%+/- 7.5%
BB%9.6%5.8% to 12.1%+/- 3.2%
Whiff%22.2%12.7% to 26.1%+/- 6.7%
HR/91.410.66 to 2.17+/- 0.75
xwOBA Against0.3190.239 to 0.333+/- 0.047
Barrel% Allowed7.3%3.6% to 9.4%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.692.22 to 6.87+/- 2.32
FIP4.642.93 to 5.67+/- 1.37
WHIP1.4711.154 to 1.751+/- 0.298
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

31 career BF

xwOBA0.228
K%8.9%
BB%9.2%
Barrel5.0%
vs RHH

47 career BF

xwOBA0.219
K%9.5%
BB%6.9%
Barrel4.7%