Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Nov 6 06:01 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Lowder, Rhett

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.8% K%
Range
12.9% to 26.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Volatile contact Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-11-06
22
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
23
Arsenal6 metrics
65
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-11-06
ERA preseason3.20
ERA current pace5.74
ERA rolling p505.03
Observed weight72%
ERA
3.27 4.11 5.03 5.96 6.79
FIP
2.64 3.49 4.43 5.37 6.21
K%
15.4% 16.5% 17.7% 18.9% 20.0%
BB%
7.4% 8.1% 8.8% 9.5% 10.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-11-06
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.52
20
ERA5.74
13
BB%9.0%
49
K%17.1%
15 -32 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.353
13 -28 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.6%
18 -54 vs proj
Fastball velo93.4
31
Hard-hit allowed39.3%
44
Whiff%16.9%
8 -36 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-11-06
Changeup Stuff+104
66
Fastball Stuff+98
23
Mithrandir Stuff+104
69
Sinker Stuff+106
80
Slider Stuff+105
76
Curveball Stuff+104
77
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lowder, Rhett · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.353 2026-10-26: 0.3532026-10-27: 0.3532026-10-28: 0.3532026-10-29: 0.3532026-10-30: 0.3532026-10-31: 0.3532026-11-01: 0.3532026-11-02: 0.3532026-11-03: 0.3532026-11-04: 0.3532026-11-05: 0.3532026-11-06: 0.353 2026-10-26 2026-11-06 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lowder, Rhett · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lowder, Rhett · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 30.4%Slider: 26.4%Changeup: 20.1%4-Seam Fastball: 20.1%Curveball: 2.9%Sweeper: 0.1% SI30% · 93 mphprimary pitch SI 30%SL 26%CH 20%FF 20%CU 3%ST 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lowder, Rhett · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 30% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 93.2 mphSI93 mphSlider: 26% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 85.2 mphSL85 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 86.5 mphCH87 mph4-Seam Fastball: 20% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.7 mphFF94 mphCurveball: 3% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 80.8 mphCU81 mphSweeper: 0% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 83.2 mphST83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 30.5% 458 106 qualified
SL 27.1% 408 105 qualified
FB 20.9% 315 98 qualified
CH 19.5% 293 104 qualified
CB 2.0% 30 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.64
K% Δ-0.047
Sample136.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings60.6----
Batters Faced272----
K%21.8%12.9% to 26.2%+/- 6.6%
BB%9.6%5.7% to 12.0%+/- 3.1%
Whiff%21.9%14.7% to 26.4%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.460.10 to 2.04+/- 0.97
xwOBA Against0.3190.245 to 0.365+/- 0.060
Barrel% Allowed6.2%0.9% to 8.5%+/- 3.8%
ERA4.100.58 to 5.13+/- 2.27
FIP4.212.18 to 6.80+/- 2.31
WHIP1.3851.028 to 1.754+/- 0.363
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

64 career BF

xwOBA0.234
K%13.5%
BB%9.7%
Barrel2.3%
vs RHH

77 career BF

xwOBA0.221
K%14.3%
BB%6.4%
Barrel2.0%