Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Lowder, Rhett

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.8% K%
Range
12.9% to 26.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Volatile contact Age 24 Status IL-15
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.20
ERA current pace5.40
ERA rolling p504.15
Observed weight43%
ERA
2.53 3.29 4.15 5.00 5.77
FIP
2.21 2.99 3.86 4.72 5.50
K%
13.9% 15.9% 18.0% 20.1% 22.1%
BB%
6.7% 7.7% 8.9% 10.0% 11.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.9%
34
Barrel allowed7.8%
49 -22 vs proj
Fastball velo92.7
25
Hard-hit allowed43.0%
29
K%16.5%
13 -34 vs proj
Whiff%17.8%
12 -28 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.350
18 -26 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+104
71
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lowder, Rhett · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3512026-05-19: 0.3512026-05-21: 0.3512026-05-23: 0.3512026-05-24: 0.3512026-05-25: 0.3502026-05-26: 0.3502026-05-28: 0.3502026-05-29: 0.3502026-05-30: 0.3502026-05-31: 0.3502026-06-01: 0.350 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lowder, Rhett · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 20%20%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lowder, Rhett · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 30.4%Slider: 24.5%4-Seam Fastball: 23.5%Changeup: 21.5% MIX SI 30%SL 25%FF 24%CH 22% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lowder, Rhett · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB -0.0, IVB 2.1SISL: HB -0.0, IVB 3.2SLFF: HB -0.4, IVB 1.5FFCH: HB -0.9, IVB 3.1CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 29.6% 193 107 limited sample
SL 25.0% 163 104 limited sample
FB 23.8% 155 99 limited sample
CH 21.5% 140 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.30
K% Δ-0.053
Sample41.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.0----
Batters Faced296----
K%21.8%12.9% to 26.1%+/- 6.6%
BB%9.6%5.7% to 12.0%+/- 3.1%
Whiff%21.7%14.6% to 26.4%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.460.10 to 2.04+/- 0.97
xwOBA Against0.3200.245 to 0.365+/- 0.060
Barrel% Allowed6.2%0.9% to 8.5%+/- 3.8%
ERA4.100.58 to 5.12+/- 2.27
FIP4.212.18 to 6.80+/- 2.31
WHIP1.3851.028 to 1.754+/- 0.363
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

64 career BF

xwOBA0.234
K%13.5%
BB%9.7%
Barrel2.3%
vs RHH

77 career BF

xwOBA0.221
K%14.3%
BB%6.4%
Barrel2.0%